Digging into the numbers to predict Cowboys vs Ravens
Every week, we’ll examine the numbers behind the next opponent on the schedule. We’ll look at historical data points as well as more recent numbers. At the end, we’ll add it all up to see what Dallas needs to do to secure a win and which team may have the edge.
The history
The Cowboys and Ravens have met just seven times. The Ravens lead the series 6-1.
The Cowboys’ lone win came during Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott’s rookie season, finishing the game 27-17.
The last time the two teams met was September 22, 2024. The Ravens fended off a late Cowboys rally in the fourth quarter, winning 28-25.
Arrow pointing up on defense?
The Cowboys defense improved last week against the Commanders. They still weren’t good.
Pressures increased between week one and week two. Dallas had just two pressures when rushing four against the Giants and nine when rushing four versus the Commanders. They couldn’t seal the deal and wound up as just one of four teams to not record a sack last week. But the fact that they are able to generate pressure without blitzing is a promising step in the right direction.
Against the Commanders, the Cowboys jumped from 32nd in EPA/play to 17th. Surely Jayden Daniels being forced out with injury has something to do with that jump, but the team can only play whoever is placed in front of them. And with Marcus Mariota in, the defense stood firm – even if a bit lucky at times.
Dallas also took advantage of turnovers when they presented themselves. Both rookies Jaishawn Barham and Caleb Downs popped the ball out, with one of the two fumbled being recovered. Dallas will need to continue to cash in on turnovers when possible.
Cowboys key stats from last week
Dak Prescott threw for 279 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions against the Commanders.
CeeDee Lamb exploded with eight catches on nine targets for 153 yards and two touchdowns.
Jake Ferguson was the other key receiving option for Dallas last week, going for 43 yards and two touchdowns.
Defensively, Dallas is still a work in progress. They allowed 389 total yards, including 182 on the ground. Mobile quarterbacks have not been kind to this defense through the first two weeks, utilizing their legs to pick up huge chunks of yardage at a time.
Ravens key stats from last week
The Ravens were shocked at home by the Saints last week, losing 24-17.
Derrick Henry’s longest run went for just eight yards against that Saints defense. He rushed for 68 yards on 16 rushing attempts.
Lamar Jackson was also bottled up on the day, rushing just four times for 34 yards, with a long of 13 yards.
Saints quarterback Tyler Shough had a 79.4 completion percentage against the Ravens defense. He finished with a quarterback rating of 107.4. Most of the Saint’s offensive damage came through the air, as they only rushed for 2.4 yards per carry on 27 attempts on the day.
What do the numbers mean?
Offensively, Dallas should look to a similar gameplan as last week when they take on the Ravens. If that defense can make Tyler Shough look like an NFL All-Pro, imagine what that could mean for Dak Prescott. Dallas should focus on lining up in 11 personnel as often as possible to take advantage of the matchup between the Cowboys receivers and Ravens defensive backs.
It’s not that the Ravens secondary is bad; they are just extremely willing to give up underneath routes to prevent the explosive plays. Dallas must use that to their advantage as an extension of their running game instead of banging their head against a wall trying to establish Javonte Williams on the ground.
On defense, Dallas must do everything in their power to avoid third-and-short situations. Last week, the Commanders converted 83% of their third-down attempts when they needed less than four yards. However, their conversion rate dipped to 37.5% when they needed four yards or more.
That means winning on first and second down. That would require the defense to reign in that brutal Baltimore rushing attack. Containing Lamar Jackson and hitting Derrick Henry in the backfield before he gets a full head of steam are paramount.
This week comes down to a pair of strength versus weakness matchups. Can the Cowboys high-powered passing game light up the Ravens secondary? Will Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson run wild against a defense that’s struggled twice in two weeks when facing mobile quarterbacks?
Both teams are looking to avoid 1-2 in Rio. Both teams have plenty of reasons to believe they could come out on top. Given their ability on the ground and the corresponding weakness of the Dallas defense, the numbers suggest the Ravens will likely be the team to enjoy their long victory flight home.
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