Header Ads

cowboys

The Cowboys plan for Dak Prescott and Trey Lance is right there in front of our eyes

June 05, 2024
New York Jets v Dallas Cowboys
Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images

The Cowboys quarterback situation remains one of great intrigue.

The Dak Prescott contract saga has commanded a lot of attention this offseason. With every sound bite from Jerry Jones or interview with Prescott, any nugget of information about his contract spreads through the media like wildfire. “What are the Cowboys going to do with Prescott?” and “When are they going to do it?” These are the questions people have as we face the uncertainty of the fate of the Cowboys franchise quarterback.

Everyone has an opinion about it. Some have this overwhelming belief in Prescott, knowing he is “the guy” and that the Cowboys front office should’ve given him a deal long ago. On the other side of the coin are those who don’t feel that same level of confidence and are ready for the team to move on from him.

But there is a third option that many tend to ignore. That is, Prescott will receive a contract extension and the Cowboys front office is going about the situation just fine. Last week, ESPN NFL Insider Jeremy Fowler stated that the Cowboys’ front office has no intention of letting him hit free agency and that a contract extension is coming soon. For some, this may seem like a new development in the Prescott situation, but if you are a regular at BTB like me, you know that this is the expected outcome.

When Prescott gets a new deal, one part of the equation will be solved. VERDICT: He’s their guy. The criticism will then shift to, what took so long? There’s been plenty of discussions about the money the Cowboys could have saved if they just signed him sooner. This is a weird one because there are a lot of factors that go into this that some may not take into account, and it’s important to touch on them before we award judgment.

“His price is just going to go up!” is a common statement made by those puzzled by the front office’s hesitancy to get a deal done. And it’s true. His price will go up, but it’s not the big deal some are making it out to be. That’s because the salary cap also goes up (which is why the QB price goes up). There is a moving window where the cost of a player seems high at first but then gets cheaper as time passes. This always happens. We’ve been through this once already.

The only time Prescott’s average annual cost was considered expensive was the first year of his current deal when he became the second-highest-paid quarterback behind Patrick Mahomes before Josh Allen jumped ahead of him a few months later. And since then, seven quarterbacks who are not as good as Mahomes now have a higher annual salary than the Chiefs’ star does because the price of franchise quarterbacks always goes up.

For Dak to truly cost the team more, he would have to elevate his play to a higher pay grade. These pay grades go something like this:

  • TIER 1: Franchise QB (24% of cap)
  • TIER 2: Viable Starting QB (12% of cap)
  • TIER 3: Contingency QB (6% of cap)

If you look at quarterbacks like Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, and Gardner Minshew, you’ll find costs that fall near these calculations.

The rub here is Dak is not moving into a more costly tier. That’s because he is already at the top pay gradient for quarterbacks. This is why he was one of the highest-paid players back in 2021 and is why he will be again soon. If the Cowboys signed him to a discounted deal before his potential was known, then they would benefit by being proactive. The front office did this once before when they squeezed Tony Romo before his stock took off. That was never going to happen with Dak. The first time they could have extended him (offseason of 2019), his value was already known. Could Prescott increase his value within the top tier by playing better? Yes, but it wouldn’t change much and it would be a price the front office would be happy to pay.

Sometimes it’s hard not to believe the Cowboys’ front office could have been a little proactive and committed to him when they could’ve gotten a little better deal. That’s what we want to believe, but for that to happen it would require his representation to not recognize his value. No credible agent will advise Prescott to jump on an early offer favorable to the team. To the contrary. His agent will help him maximize his deal, whether that includes higher guarantees or terms that put his client back on the market when the prices skyrocket. As the phrase goes, it takes two to tango, and discounted deals aren’t to be had for football’s most precious commodity.

The only way a team can mess up a QB contract, or any contract for that matter, is to invest too early and have an unproven player not live up to his contract price. This happens all the time and is very common in free agency.

If signing Prescott is the way, then what are the Cowboys’ plans for Trey Lance? The Cowboys used a fourth-round draft pick to acquire him so clearly they have something in mind. The progress he makes this year will tell us where this is headed. The team hopes he can take a step forward and be a viable backup option in 2024 should Prescott get hurt. If he develops into a good player, it will give the Cowboys options later, and those options include:

  • backup quarterback for the foreseeable future
  • trade bait
  • compensatory pick
  • Dak’s replacement

It’s also possible that Lance doesn’t materialize into anything and he plays out his rookie deal and ventures off into a world where he becomes a journeyman QB before eventually fizzling out. His next chapter hasn’t been written yet, but becoming the Cowboys' new franchise quarterback feels a bit far-fetched. A lot of new developments would have to occur before that becomes something to even consider.

While we wait to see how this unfolds, keep in mind that the Cowboys' stringent bookkeeping has always had a purpose and that purpose is to keep critical pieces of the roster together. And regardless of how good we think he is, Dak Prescott is one of those pieces. Prepare for an upcoming contract extension while rooting for the former No. 3 overall pick to develop into something useful because both of those outcomes would be in the best interest of the Cowboys.


Post a Comment

No comments

Subscribe to: Post Comments ( Atom )