Cowboys draft: History suggests Dallas should acquire a fourth-round pick

Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

It would be very nice if the Cowboys could find a way to find a fourth-round pick.

If there’s one thing fans can feel confident about regarding the Dallas Cowboys, it’s drafting players who could contribute immediately. Under Will McClay, the team’s Director of Player Personnel, their track record of hitting on all-star players is pretty remarkable.

The #Cowboys 2022 draft class is stacking up to be another win for Will McClay, the Jones’, and the scouts:

• OL Tyler Smith:
- 31 games (17 at LT; 14 at LG)
- 1x 2nd team All-Pro
- 1x Pro Bowl

• CB DaRon Bland:
- 34 games
- 14 career INTs
- NFL record for pick six’s in a… pic.twitter.com/uOc75ifnMn

— Brandon Loree (@Brandoniswrite) February 14, 2024

While the 2023 class left a smudge on a rather stellar résumé, the careers of Mazi Smith, Luke Schoomaker, DeMarvion Overshow, and the rest are far from over. Just looking at the jump the 2022 class made from their rookie seasons to year two is impressive. Tyler Smith solidified himself as a Pro Bowl and All-Pro guard, DaRon Bland made history with five interceptions returned for touchdowns, and Jake Ferguson developed into a reliable Pro Bowl target for Dak Prescott in the passing game.

Dallas’ draft reputation around the league developed because of their ability to target its first-round talent and later-round players who become instant starters.

After round three in this year’s draft, the Cowboys have four picks, one in the fifth and sixth and two in the seventh. A glaring absence is the missing fourth-round pick, which the San Francisco 49ers will receive after Dallas traded for Trey Lance last offseason.

Normally, this wouldn’t be a big deal, but history suggests the fourth round has been cash money for Dallas, and they should turn over every stone to take at least one shot in that round.

Pro Bowl players the Cowboys have drafted since 2016 by round selected:

1st - 5
2nd - 2
3rd - 0
4th - 4
5th - 1
6th - 0
7th - 0

Also, Dorance Armstrong and Dalton Schultz haven't made Pro Bowls, but are legitimate contributors. https://t.co/FSUxUn4esF

— Bobby Belt (@BobbyBeltTX) April 6, 2024

Going back and forth with a fan on Twitter, Bobby Belt, from 105.3 The Fan, shows that outside of their first-round draft picks, the Cowboys have had the most Pro Bowls from players in the fourth round since 2016. Who are those players?

• 2016: Dak Prescott - 3x Pro Bowler
• 2019: Tony Pollard - 1x Pro Bowler
• 2020: Tyler Biadasz - 1x Pro Bowler
• 2022: Jake Ferguson - 1x Pro Bowler

Within that round, the Cowboys found a starting running back, center, tight end, and franchise quarterback. To be fair, for every Prescott, there is a Charles Tapper, Jabril Cox, Josh Ball, Reggie Robinson, and so on. It will never be 100 percent, but getting at least one throw at the dartboard is all Dallas needs.

Trade scenario to give the Cowboys a fourth-round pick

How can they acquire a golden ticket in the fourth? Jerry Jones could certainly trade back if the right offer is on the table. In the first round, the Buffalo Bills could want to jump in front of the Green Bay Packers or Arizona Cardinals and take one of the top wide receivers. Given the recent trading of Stefon Diggs, the wide receiver position has become Buffalo’s blinking red light.

Bills’ General Manager Brandon Beane has not shied away from trading up in the first round. He actually did so last year to select tight end Dalton Kincaid in front of the Cowboys, thinking they would target Kincaid as their pick.

Buffalo has two fourth-round picks, so if they wanted Dallas’ pick at No. 24, trading away No. 28 (1st), No. 128 (4th), and No. 144 (5th from the Chicago Bears) might get it done. In a mock draft scenario on Pro Football Focus’ Mock Draft Simulator, the Bills accepted this trade.

In this scenario, Dallas drafted Tyler Guyton, Junior Colson, Trey Benson, and Cooper Beebe with the added pick in the fourth round. There seems to be an immense weight on Dallas’ shoulders to address four significant needs with their first three picks. The math doesn’t add up.

After trading with Buffalo, it allows the draft a chance to breathe without the front office being pressured into drafting for need in every round. With these selections, Dallas can feel better about the offensive line and their depth at linebacker while adding the running back of the future in Benson. Beebe is listed as a guard, but given his athletic testing numbers at the NFL Combine, he could be projected to be a center if a team wanted to make the switch.

The Cowboys have had success drafting starting-caliber centers in the fourth round, and they hope to catch lightning in a bottle again with their latest pick, Beebe. Dallas’ History suggests he will become a solid player.