Digging into the numbers to predict Cowboys vs Buccaneers
Every week, we’ll examine the numbers behind the next opponent on the schedule. We’ll look at the recent numbers and trends for each team. At the end, we’ll add it all up to see what Dallas needs to do to secure a win and which team may have the edge.
Cowboys key stats from last week
Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions against the Texans. He finished with a 99.8 quarterback rating.
Javonte Williams was limited on the ground to just 62 yards on 19 carries. He did have an impressive three touchdown performance, however, with all of the scores coming in the second half.
CeeDee Lamb showcased why he’s one of the premier receivers in the NFL. The All-Pro receiver finished with a season high 189 yards on a career high 17 receptions. He also caught the game winning touchdown against the Texans.
The Dallas defense continues to impress on third down, allowing only three first downs on ten attempts against the Texans. But that’s only one part of the tale. Explosive plays were the Achilles heel all game long. The Texans recorded a 16% explosive play rate, gashing Dallas for 20+ yard gains throughout the day.
Buccaneers key stats from last week
The Buccaneers took on the Packers last Sunday and took home the loss, 17-14. Tampa Bay has now started the season 0-4 for first time since 2013. This was also their fourth straight loss by seven points or less.
Rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels received his first start, going 19-of-27 for 148 yards through the air. He would finish with one touchdown and two interceptions on the day. On the ground, the mobile quarterback would run for 55 yards, including a long of 21.
In Baker Mayfield’s stead, this offense needs to run through running back Bucky Irving. He racked up 61 yards on 16 carries against the Packers.
According to SumerSports, the Buccaneers defense ranks fourth in EPA/play allowed this season and finished as the 14th ranked unit in the same category against the Packers in Week 4.
Defensive line: Start your engines
Last week was somewhat of a disappointment for the Cowboys pass rush when considering the weakness of the Texans offensive line. Rashan Gary and Quinnen Williams each recorded one sack, but the pass rush took entirely too long to get started and was inconsistent at best. But Dallas has another shot at a get right matchup this week.
Coming into this game, Tampa Bay has surrendered the most sacks in the NFL, including three last week against the Packers. Facing a rookie quarterback in his second start, Dallas will get another shot at jump starting the pass rush of their defensive front.
While mobile quarterbacks had made the Cowboys pay for the first three weeks, this is a much less proven passer as compared to the other three. Dallas can’t break contain because Jalon Daniels will be more than happy to take off and pick up 15 yards at any moment. At the same time, this front will need to figure out a way to consistently put pressure on the young quarterback to force mistakes. Christian Parker should lean into the blitz more this week as well with the same goal in mind.
What do the numbers mean?
On offense, this should be another game where Dak Prescott and the receivers shine. The Tampa Bay defense doesn’t sack the quarterback often, with just six on the season. And their pass defense ranks 22nd in quarterback rating allowed. In addition, safety Antoine Winfield Jr. is set to miss this game. The Buccaneers won’t allow CeeDee Lamb to go unchecked like the Texans did last week, so this could very well be the 2026 coming out party for George Pickens and Ryan Flournoy.
Defensively, the Cowboys have to get after Daniels. This is another week where the Cowboys face an opponent that has not been good at protecting their quarterback. It’s time this defense takes advantage of it. And if we discover that the front four is not getting it done, Parker should be unafraid to send extra blitzers.
Young quarterbacks are typically susceptible to disguised coverages and blitzes, and Daniels has already shown that to be the case last week. The first order of business is to stop Irving and the run game, of course, but the defense should also be able to force Daniels into some errors throughout the day.
As of right now, the line on the game sits at Cowboys -8.5. That seems like a lot at first glance, but the Dallas offense has been historically good through four weeks.
Going up against a struggling Buccaneers offense and a backup quarterback should equate to an easy day for the Cowboys. This is a week for the Cowboys defense to take a step forward, should they be willing and able to do so. You never really can get too comfortable around these parts though.
We also have to consider the rough schedule Dallas has had: getting beat up in Brazil to then come back to Texas to win a buzzer beater against the Texans. The Cowboys should clearly win this game against the Buccaneers. But until we can put more consistent trust in the defense, games that should be blowouts are likely to end up closer than they would initially appear on paper.
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