Digging into the numbers to predict Cowboys at Packers
Every week, we’ll examine the numbers behind the next opponent on the schedule. Looking at the recent numbers and trends for each team, we’ll add it all up to see which squad may have the edge. This week, the Cowboys travel to Lambeau on Sunday Night Football to face the Green Bay Packers.
Cowboys key stats from last week
Dak Prescott threw for 316 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions against the Buccaneers. Both interceptions came after tipped balls off the hands of receivers. He finished with a 69.1 quarterback rating.
Javonte Williams finished the day with just 45 yards on 12 carries. He also scored a touchdown on the first drive of the game. Dallas largely abandoned the run early after the first drive.
The leading receiver for the Cowboys on the day was George Pickens. The receiver had his biggest game of the season, catching nine passes for 130 yards and a touchdown.
The Dallas defense collapsed against Tampa Bay. They allowed 241 yards on the ground and 189 passing yards to rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels. More importantly, they forced zero turnovers, despite Daniels gifting them a pick six.
Packers key stats from last week
The Packers dismantled the backup QB-led Bears last week, winning 31-7.
Quarterback Jordan Love threw for 367 yards, two touchdowns, and finished with a 137.5 passer rating.
The leading receiver on the day was Christian Watson, snagging six catches for 143 yards and two touchdowns. Matthew Golden wasn’t too far behind, finishing with six catches as well and 123 yards. These two receivers accounted for 266 out of the 428 total yards on the day for the offense.
The Packers had three players with receptions of over 45 yards versus the Bears. The big play potential will be a factor in the matchup this week.
Surviving the explosives
It’s no secret – Jordan Love loves to throw the ball down the field to his explosive play makers. The Packers currently rank ninth in deep ball percentage at nearly 15% (SumerSports). Wide receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden both rank in the top ten for receiving yards. They’re going to air the ball out.
Dallas, on the other hand, lost last week because of 14 points coming from a pair of explosive plays in the third quarter. They currently rank 28th in average depth of target, allowing teams to throw the ball downfield routinely. This sounds like a potential disaster, right?
The hope for Cowboys fans lives in newly acquired Joey Porter Jr. Unable to go last week due to illness, the star cornerback will play at Lambeau. His ability to limit receivers on the outside certainly helps Christian Parker, who can now be more aggressive with blitzes and disguises, knowing that he has a cornerback that’s able to play press man coverage at a high level. And with the signing of Mike Pettine to help on the defensive staff, the signs point to enhanced aggression from the play-caller. But will it be enough against such a potent offense?
What do the numbers mean?
On paper, this doesn’t look great for Dallas. The largest weakness in the matchup between the two teams is clear: Packers passing offense vs Cowboys defense. This defensive unit has shown little-to-no ability in getting after the passer on a consistent basis. The backend has been plagued with injury and underperformance. And this is a receiving corps for the Packers that is not to be trifled with
On the other side, however, this could be a week where Dallas needs to stick with their run game. The Packers are the 22nd ranked team in rush success against, meaning this could be a get right week for Javonte Williams and the offensive line.
The benefit of running the ball this week, of course, is keeping Jordan Love and his receivers off the field. Dallas should gameplan around long, methodical drives to help keep their defense off the field. And when the Packers start to cheat up and commit resources to the box, that’s when Dak Prescott strikes George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb with dagger shots downfield. The gameplan sounds good coming from a writer on a random weekday, but can Dallas actually commit to the run and execute it well? That could be the determining factor this week.
As it sits right now, the Packers are 1.5 point favorites. The numbers and the mismatch against the Cowboys defense gives the feeling that this game favors Green Bay more than what essentially equates to a coin toss in Vegas. But if Dallas can get their ground game going against a vulnerable Packers rush defense, that could be the great equalizer in this one.
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