Cowboys Playoff Tracker: What win over Texans means for playoff chances
Four games into the season, the Cowboys stand at a slightly disappointing 2-2, but with the hope that the addition of Joey Porter Jr. will be the start of a defensive turnaround.
Since the league moved to a 17-game schedule in 2020, 63 teams started the season 2-2, and 25 of those teams (40%) eventually made the playoffs. The table below shows what the playoff chances have looked like over the last six seasons by W/L after the fourth game of the season.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; } body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th { padding: 0px 6px !important; }| Playoff chances based on Week 4 W/L records, since 2020 | |||||
| Record after Week 4 | 4-0 | 3-1 | 2-2 | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Total Teams | 14 | 49 | 63 | 53 | 13 |
| Playoff Teams | 14 | 38 | 25 | 7 | 0 |
| Percentage | 100% | 78% | 40% | 13% | 0% |
But how good are the 2-2 Cowboys really, and more importantly, can they start stacking some wins soon?
To understand where the Cowboys currently stand and what their chances look like going forward, we turn once again to the trusted Pythagorean Formula. We’ve used the formula often before (for more details, go here) to measure overall team strength, on the hypothesis that a team’s true strength could be measured more accurately by looking at points scored and points allowed, rather than by looking at wins and losses.
After four weeks of play, there is already quite a strong correlation between the win-projection and the actual season-ending W/L record. Of course, with every additional week of data, the formula gets better, but after about Week 4 the improvements are gradual, and not as steep as in the first few weeks. To illustrate that, let’s look at the four teams in the NFC East and how their Pythagorean Wins developed week by week last season:
Notice how the Pythagorean Formula last year was already projecting the Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants pretty accurately after Week 4: The Eagles were already looking like 11-game winners, the Cowboys were projected for six wins, one shy of their eventual win total, and the Giants were slightly ahead of their eventual four-win total. The Commanders started out strong, but then multiple injuries to Jayden Daniels derailed their season.
The point here is that barring a meltdown like the Commanders had last season, or a surge later in the season, a couple of weeks worth of data can provide an early indication of where the train might be headed.
In four games so far this season, the Cowboys have scored 122 points (T2nd) and allowed 112 (29th). The Pythagorean projected wins for this stat line: 9.4 wins, and adjusted for the games already played: 9.2 wins.
Even outside of the historic playoff chances, that win total suggests it’ll be tight for the Cowboys to make the playoffs, barring a significant improvement on defense.
Using the Pythagorean formula for the remaining 31 teams, we get a good idea of the emerging 2026 playoff picture. With that in mind, here’s how the projected wins stack up after Week 4 for all 32 NFL teams:
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; } body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th { padding: 0px 6px !important; }| AFC | .. | NFC | ||||||||||
| AFC EAST | W | L | PF | PA | Proj.Wins | NFC EAST | W | L | PF | PA | Proj.Wins | |
| Buffalo | 3 | 1 | 127 | 107 | 10.8 | NY Giants | 3 | 1 | 82 | 79 | 9.8 | |
| New England | 2 | 2 | 65 | 77 | 7.2 | Dallas | 2 | 2 | 122 | 112 | 9.2 | |
| NY Jets | 1 | 3 | 76 | 84 | 6.7 | Philadelphia | 2 | 2 | 75 | 93 | 6.9 | |
| Miami | 0 | 4 | 46 | 101 | 1.7 | Washington | 1 | 3 | 88 | 122 | 5.1 | |
| AFC North | W | L | PF | PA | Proj.Wins | NFC North | W | L | PF | PA | Proj.Wins | |
| Baltimore | 3 | 1 | 116 | 96 | 10.9 | Minnesota | 4 | 0 | 86 | 51 | 14.1 | |
| Cincinnati | 2 | 2 | 97 | 85 | 9.5 | Chicago | 3 | 1 | 112 | 65 | 13.2 | |
| Cleveland | 3 | 1 | 81 | 95 | 8.3 | Detroit | 2 | 2 | 119 | 127 | 8.0 | |
| Pittsburgh | 2 | 2 | 77 | 87 | 7.6 | Green Bay | 2 | 2 | 73 | 105 | 5.9 | |
| AFC South | W | L | PF | PA | Proj.Wins | NFC South | W | L | PF | PA | Proj.Wins | |
| Jacksonville | 3 | 1 | 104 | 53 | 13.8 | Carolina | 2 | 2 | 121 | 109 | 9.3 | |
| Indianapolis | 2 | 2 | 102 | 104 | 8.4 | New Orleans | 1 | 2 | 81 | 83 | 7.8 | |
| Houston | 0 | 4 | 84 | 109 | 4.6 | Atlanta | 1 | 2 | 51 | 68 | 5.7 | |
| Tennessee | 0 | 4 | 55 | 83 | 3.6 | Tampa Bay | 0 | 4 | 76 | 96 | 4.7 | |
| AFC West | W | L | PF | PA | Proj.Wins | NFC West | W | L | PF | PA | Proj.Wins | |
| Kansas City | 4 | 0 | 118 | 77 | 13.5 | San Francisco | 4 | 0 | 122 | 64 | 14.7 | |
| Las Vegas | 3 | 1 | 115 | 84 | 11.8 | Seattle | 3 | 1 | 105 | 73 | 12.1 | |
| Denver | 2 | 2 | 74 | 94 | 6.7 | LA Rams | 2 | 2 | 85 | 83 | 8.7 | |
| LA Chargers | 0 | 4 | 67 | 106 | 3.3 | Arizona | 1 | 3 | 87 | 117 | 5.3 | |
| Green: Division Winner | Yellow: Wildcard | |||||||||||
Right now, the Cowboys project as the NFC’s final wild-card team, but that is a tenuous position. For the Cowboys, the safest way to the playoffs is by winning the NFC East.
Over the course of a season, most football fans construct a mental map of the NFL teams. After last season, for example, most football fans would have considered the Texans contenders heading into this year. Yet after just four weeks, the Texans’ playoff margin for error has effectively disappeared at 0-4.
Like every season, the NFL landscape is changing, and with it fans have to readjust their mental map of NFL teams. The reality of the 2026 season is taking shape right before our eyes, and that reality doesn’t necessarily have much to do with the 2025 season.
And part of that reality is that the schedule the Cowboys face in the remaining 13 games doesn’t look quite as daunting as it may have at the start of the season.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; } body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th { padding: 0px 6px !important; }| Week | Opp | Wins 2025 | Proj. Wins 2026 | |
| 1 | @ | Giants | 4 | 9.8 |
| 2 | Commanders | 5 | 5.1 | |
| 3 | Ravens | 8 | 10.9 | |
| 4 | @ | Texans | 12 | 4.6 |
| 5 | Buccaneers | 8 | 4.7 | |
| 6 | @ | Packers | 9 | 5.9 |
| 7 | @ | Eagles | 11 | 6.9 |
| 8 | Cardinals | 3 | 5.3 | |
| 9 | @ | Colts | 8 | 8.4 |
| 10 | 49ers | 12 | 14.7 | |
| 11 | Titans | 3 | 3.6 | |
| 12 | Eagles | 11 | 6.9 | |
| 13 | @ | Seahawks | 14 | 12.1 |
| 14 | Bye Week | |||
| 15 | @ | Rams | 12 | 8.7 |
| 16 | Jaguars | 13 | 13.8 | |
| 17 | Giants | 4 | 9.8 | |
| 18 | @ | Commanders | 5 | 5.1 |
Heading into 2026, and based on each opponent’s 2025 W/L record, the Cowboys were scheduled to play seven games against teams with double-digit wins. That number has now dropped to four.
The offseason strength of schedule (SOS) had the Cowboys ranked with the 13th-easiest SOS, based on the projected 2026 wins above, they now have the 9th-easiest schedule.
It’s still early in the season, but through four weeks it looks like the Cowboys still have a shot at the playoffs, but they need to start stacking some wins soon to improve their playoff chances.
Their defense may improve further, their schedule got easier, and who knows how long the Jameis Giants can maintain their little run.
Is that enough for the Cowboys to make the playoffs?
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