Looking back at what happened to the 2025 NFL preseason favorites

In early May last year, Bet MGM released their post-draft NFL Over/Under win totals for all 32 teams. Nine months later the Seahawks (7.5 projected wins) beat the Patriots (7.5 wins) in the Super Bowl. Neither team had even been projected to make the playoffs, much less play in the Super Bowl.

But such are the vagaries of pre-season win projections.

Technically, the post-draft win projections have free agency, the draft, coaching changes, and anything else that happened since the end of the previous season priced in. But much more importantly, the oddsmakers are trying to provide odds where the action from the betting public will remain even on both sides of the bet. And the betting public, by and large, believes that the most likely outcome this year is going to be largely the same as the outcome last year.

Case in point: Last year’s post-draft win projection.

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2025 AFC Win Projection			2025 NFC Win Projection
Division Winners			Division Winners
Baltimore Ravens*	11.5		Philadelphia Eagles*	11.5
Buffalo Bills*	11.5		Detroit Lions*	10.5
Kansas City Chiefs*	11.5		San Francisco 49ers	10.5
Houston Texans*	9.5		Tampa Bay Buccaneers*	9.5
Wild Cards			Wild Cards
Cincinnati Bengals	9.5		Washington Commanders*	9.5
LA Chargers*	9.5		Green Bay Packers*	9.5
Denver Broncos*	9.5		LA Rams*	9.5
Non-Playoff Teams			Non-Playoff Teams
Miami Dolphins	8.5		Minnesota Vikings*	8.5
Pittsburgh Steelers*	8.5		Chicago Bears	8.5
New Engand Patriots	7.5		Arizona Cardinals	8.5
Indianapolis Colts	7.5		Dallas Cowboys	7.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	7.5		Seattle Seahwaks	7.5
Las Vegas Raiders	6.5		Atlanta Falcons	7.5
NY Jets	5.5		Carolina Panthers	6.5
Tennessee Titans	5.5		New Orleans Saints	6.5
Cleveland Browns	4.5		NY Giants	5.5

Red marks the teams that missed the playoffs last year, (*) marks the teams that made the playoffs the year before.

Six teams missed the playoffs despite being pre-season favorites for another playoff appearance. And that six-team total is perfectly in line with the average of the last 24 years since re-alignment in 2002: Every year, an average of six to seven new teams make the NFL playoffs.

Yet the win projections look like little more than a repeat of last year’s playoff field: 12 of the 14 playoff participants from 2024 were projected to repeat their playoff appearance in 2025.

So why would a sportsbook put up such an unlikely scenario? Because they are playing the betting public, and that betting public is heavily influenced by recency bias, the tendency to think that trends and patterns we observe in the recent past will continue in the future. But predicting the long-term future based on what has happened in the past is often no more accurate than flipping a coin.

We know that in the NFL, less than half of teams repeat as division winners from year to year, and that an average of about six to seven new teams make it to the playoffs every year. That means only half of each year’s NFL playoff participants make it back to the playoffs the following year. Yet every offseason or pre-season team ranking/win projection/Super Bowl odds list has last year’s top teams still sitting at the top. Why? Recency bias.

This year’s win projection is almost carbon copy of last year’s approach, with 10 of 14 playoff participants from 2025 projected to repeat their playoff appearance in 2026.

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2026 AFC Win Projection			2026 NFC Win Projection
Division Winners			Division Winners
Baltimore Ravens	11.5		Los Angeles Rams*	11.5
Buffalo Bills*	10.5		Philadelphia Eagles*	10.5
Los Angeles Chargers*	10.5		Detroit Lions	10.5
Houston Texans*	9.5		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.5
Wild Cards			Wild Cards
Kansas City Chiefs	10.5		Seattle Seahawks*	10.5
New England Patriots*	9.5		San Francisco 49ers*	10.5
Jacksonville Jaguars*	9.5		Green Bay Packers*	10.5
Non-Playoff Teams			Non-Playoff Teams
Cincinnati Bengals	9.5		Dallas Cowboys	9.5
Denver Broncos*	9.5		Chicago Bears*	9.5
Pittsburgh Steelers*	8.5		Minnesota Vikings	8.5
Indianapolis Colts	7.5		Carolina Panthers*	7.5
Tennessee Titans	6.5		Atlanta Falcons	7.5
Cleveland Browns	6.5		New Orleans Saints	7.5
Las Vegas Raiders	5.5		Washington Commanders	7.5
New York Jets	5.5		New York Giants	7.5
Miami Dolphins	4.5		Arizona Cardinals	4.5

At the start of every new season, it always takes a while for us to reconfigure our mental landscape of the NFL hierarchy, as last year’s favorites falter and last year’s underachievers suddenly flourish.

Few things get football fans more riled up at this time of year than win-total projections for the coming season, and the reaction to those projections is completely predictable.

One part of the fan base is outraged that anybody could think the Cowboys could come anywhere close to last year’s disappointing 7-9-1 team, another part is equally outraged that anybody could think the Cowboys could improve versus last year, a third part can’t understand how anybody could see much of a change in either direction.

But is getting worked up over those projections really worth it?

There’s a chance, however remote you feel it is, the Cowboys (9.5 win projection) could end up in the playoffs this year, just as there’s a chance that they could end up behind the Commanders in the division. If they do, it has nothing to do with last year’s team, and everything to do with this year’s team.

Have the Cowboys done enough to improve their pass rush, can the defense cover anybody (like, at all), is there a left tackle somewhere on that roster, does anybody have an idea how to fix the red-zone issues, does anybody feel responsible for fixing the penalties, and is there anything outside of wishful thinking that would make this offense better than last year? These are some of the questions that will determine the course of the 2026 season, not where the team finished on the 2025 league tables.

The Ringer ranks the Cowboys 11th overall heading into 2026, and summarizes the Cowboys’ chances as follows:

The Cowboys offense has a chance to be the league’s best, and that alone is enough to make Dallas a playoff threat. But teams with powerful offenses like San Francisco and Cincinnati have struggled to make the leap in recent years because of injuries or roster weaknesses on the other side of the ball. 

So Dallas’s hopes depend on how the defensive changes work out. New coordinator Christian Parker is a Vic Fangio disciple, and his scheme will be designed around limiting explosive plays. To make it work, Parker will need to get solid (if not elite) play out of new defensive backs Caleb Downs, Jalen Thompson, and Cobie Durant. If the front seven takes a legitimate step forward and can support what should be a top-10 offense, I won’t look so silly for believing in the Cowboys.

Every year a team that nobody was thinking of as a contender suddenly strings together a couple of wins early in the year, starts playing like a good football team in the middle of the season and actually becomes a good football team as it clinches a playoff spot late in the season.

Could the Cowboys be that team in 2026?