ESPN’s SackSEER predicts strong, deep edge rusher class

In 2010, Football Outsiders introduced us to SackSEER, a regression-based formula developed to predict the NFL success of edge rushers selected in the NFL Draft.

The current formula (it seems to change on an almost yearly basis) is based on a few key metrics:

• an explosion index combining forty-yard dash, vertical jump and broad jump results
• adjusted sacks per game in college (with some adjustments for position changes in college and early NFL entries)
• passes defensed, a recently added metric to evaluate pass-rushing success beyond just sacks.

Additionally, the formula incorporates an edge rusher’s projected draft position (as per Scouts Inc.). This is a very interesting addition as the formula now includes a scouting element, where it was almost exclusively a stat-based metric in its early years.

Three-cone drill results were removed from the formula this year, as only two edge rusher prospects ran the three-cone at the combine this year.

Football Outsiders is long out of business, but Aaron Schatz continues their work at ftnfantasy.com and just published this year’s SackSEER numbers on ESPN.

SackSEER is not the be-all, end-all of statistical analysis, and its makers have argued that it is more accurate at identifying busts than it is at singling out potential stars, but it is definitely worth a look. Which is exactly what we’ll do today.

If you’re not familiar with SackSEER, here’s a brief outline of how it works: Using the metrics outlined above, the SackSEER formula projects each prospect’s total sacks through five NFL seasons. Although there are always outliers in the individual projections, when accumulating all the individual numbers, the SackSEER formula reportedly projects sack production about three times more accurately than simply going by a player’s draft position within the first two rounds.

The model is not without its detractors, and the initial model famously missed on the Giants’ Jason Pierre-Paul, who met his five-year sack projection in his first year in the league. In 2017, a particularly painful year for Cowboys fans, SackSEER correctly predicted Myles Garrett (1st overall pick) and T.J. Watt (30th) as the two top edge rushers in the draft class, projecting 31.9 and 26.5 sacks respectively. Garrett had 58.5 sacks after five years, Watt had 72. But SackSEER also projected Taco Charlton (28th) to have 20.8 sacks after five years. He had 11.5 over five years and only four for Dallas.

But harping on a few high-profile misses is always easier than looking at the overall accuracy of the model. Applying the model to edge rushers drafted into the NFL since 1999 yields more accurate predictions than misses. So don’t discard the model just because of some high profile misses. For the most part, the model is fairly accurate.

But before we dive into this year’s class of edge rushers, let’s review the top eight prospects from last year’s draft class as measured by SackSEER, keeping in mind that the projection is for five years, and not just the rookie season:

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Player	Draft Team	Round (Pick)	5-Year Sack Projection	Sacks 2025
Abdul Carter	Giants	1 (3)	28.0	4.0
Shemar Stewart	Bengals	1 (17)	25.2	1.0
Mike Green	Ravens	2 (59)	23.9	3.5
Donovan Ezeiruaku	Cowboys	2 (44)	19.9	2.0
Mykel Williams	49ers	1 (11)	19.6	1.0
James Pearce	Falcons	1 (26)	19.3	10.5
Jordan Burch	Cardinals	3 (78)	18.6	1.0
Jalon Walker	Falcons	1 (15)	17.9	5.5

This list has got to be a little disappointing for Cowboys fans, given that Donovan Ezeiruaku managed just two sacks in his rookie season. But Cowboys fans don’t have to look far to get their hopes up: DeMarcus Lawrence was one of the also-rans on the SackSEER list in 2014 (ranked 16th overall) and was projected for just 12 sacks though five NFL seasons. Lawrence had 34 sacks after five years, has 67.5 career sacks, and now has a Super Bowl ring.

Before getting into this year’s draft class, let’s take one last look back at the most recent draft class to complete their five-year SackSEER window, the class of 2021:

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Player	Draft Team	Round (Pick)	5-Year Sack Projection	Sacks 2021-25
Jaelan Phillips	Dolphins	1 (18)	30.5	28.0
Odafe Oweh	Ravens	1 (31)	24.5	30.5
Kwity Paye	Colts	1 (21)	21.7	30.5
Gregory Rousseau	Bills	1 (30)	21.3	32.0
Carlos Basham	Bills	2 (61)	20.7	4.0
Joseph Ossai	Bengals	3 (69)	19.7	14.5
Azeez Ojulari	Giants	2 (50)	18.7	22.0
Joe Tryon	Bucs	1(32)	17.4	15.0

There’s an obvious miss here on Boogie Basham, and the projection underestimated Odafe Oweh, Kwity Paye, and Gregory Rousseau, but directionally, the numbers look fine, with high production at the top of the list and lower production at the bottom, along with one clear miss.

The biggest miss is of course Micah Parsons, but he was considered a linebacker heading into the draft, so he wasn’t included in the SackSEER projection. And even if he had been, his projection would have been based on linebacker numbers in college and wouldn’t have looked great, something we’re seeing for Arvell Reese this year as well.

And with that, here’s how the top eight edge rushers in this year’s draft class stack up:

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Player	Draft Team	Projected Round	5-Year Sack Projection
David Bailey	Texas Tech	1st	26.6
Keldric Faulk	Auburn	1st	23.5
T.J. Parker	Clemson	1st	23.1
Arvell Reese	Ohio State	1st	23.0
Akheem Mesidor	Miami (FL)	1st	21.1
Rueben Bain Jr.	Miami (FL)	1st	21.0
Malachi Lawrence	UCF	2nd	18.5
Zion Young	Missouri	2nd	16.4

Aaron Schatz summarizes the draft class on ESPN:

The 2026 NFL draft is a good one for edge rushers, with seven players projected to go in the first round. Our SackSEER projection system — which predicts sack totals across a player’s first five pro seasons — agrees with the consensus on many of this year’s top prospects.

So far, the Cowboys have invited only two players from this list (Arvell Reese and David Bailey) for an official pre-draft visit this year, though more names may be added to the list of visitors over the next three weeks.

The SackSEER analysis adds an interesting dimension to the recent “trade-up-for-Bailey” discussion. Bailey’s 26.6 projection is almost identical to T.J. Watt’s 26.5 projection from 2017. And if you are convinced you’ll get Watt-type production out of Bailey, surely that’s worth trading up for, or is it?

The Cowboys were willing to trade pick No. 12 and a 2027 second-round pick for the soon-to-be 29 year-old Maxx Crosby and his $30 million per year contract. If Bailey is the real deal, then surely you’d be willing to pay more than that for him.

In any case, even if the Cowboys miss out on Bailey, they have a strong pool of edge rushers to pick from either at #12 or at #20. And if the Cowboys do draft from the bottom of the list, we can always hope the Cowboys’ scouting acumen tops the SackSEER projection the way it did with DeMarcus Lawrence.

If you’re the Cowboys front office and looking get the Cowboys back into the playoffs, do you go for the best guy you can get, or do you sit tight, trust your board, and pick the best edge rusher available to you even if SackSEER may not rate them quite as highly as you do?