Why the Cowboys are targeting big-school prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft
The Cowboys have a long and rich history with players from small schools. Defensive tackle Jethro Pugh out of Elizabeth (N.C.) City State was the first small-school standout for the Cowboys when he was drafted in 1964. Since then the Cowboys have compiled an impressive list of small-school talent that includes Hall of Fame OT Rayfield Wright out of Fort Valley State, HoF OG Larry Allen out of Sonoma State, and numerous Pro Bowlers.
More recently, small-school prospects continued to make the roster in Dallas. DeMarcus Ware (Troy), Tony Romo (Eastern Illinois), Miles Austin (Monmouth), Barry Church (Toledo), and Jeff Heath (Saginaw Valley St.) went on to fame and fortune in Dallas.
Granted, outside of DeMarcus Ware, all of the recent small-school prospects joined the Cowboys as undrafted free agents right after college. But that doesn’t mean the Cowboys acquired small-school prospects entirely outside of the draft, far from it. For a while, between 2009 and 2013, the non-FBS prospect remained a staple in the Cowboys’ drafts:
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| Year | Round | Player | POS | College | Conf | Games started |
wAV |
| 2013 | 3 | J.J. Wilcox | S | Georgia Southern | SoCon | 38 | 16 |
| 2013 | 4 | B.W. Webb | CB | William & Mary | CAA | 9 | 14 |
| 2012 | 4 | Matt Johnson | S | Eastern Washington | Big Sky | — | — |
| 2012 | 7 | Caleb McSurdy | ILB | Montana | Big Sky | — | — |
| 2011 | 4 | David Arkin | G | Missouri State | MVFC | — | — |
| 2010 | 4 | Akwasi Owusu-Ansah | DB | Indiana (PA) | PSAC | 2 | 1 |
| 2010 | 7 | Sean Lissemore | DT | William & Mary | CAA | 21 | 13 |
| 2009 | 3 | Jason Williams | LB | Western Illinois | MVFC | 4 | 4 |
As you review the names on the list above, you can’t be very happy. J.J. Wilcox (whose school has moved into the FBS since he graduated) is the only pick that had moderate success for the Cowboys. And what is particularly galling is that the list above contains six third- or fourth-round picks. That’s still premium territory as far as the draft is concerned. But these six picks, for various reasons, averaged just seven games started over their entire NFL career.
After the 2013 draft, the Cowboys were happy with their draft haul, but unhappy with the process that got them there. Their process had seen them pass over DT Sharrif Floyd because some of the coaches felt he wasn’t the right fit for the Cowboys, even though the Cowboys’ scouts had ranked him fifth on the Cowboys draft board. That disconnect between the scouts and coaches led to the promotion of Will McClay to the most important position in the organization that can be manned by somebody not named Jones.
In June 2013 McClay was named the assistant director of player personnel, and he immediately put a kibosh on small-school prospects. Here’s McClay talking about his preference for big schools in 2014:
“Man, we went into [the draft] looking for the best football players, first,” McClay said. “Guys that had the skill set that fit our deal, were from a big school. It was part of the discussion. You look at the big school, small school and you weigh those things and look at the history that’s been throughout the league, if 82 percent comes from major schools, well there is some reason for that.”
And that mindset brought about a notable change in how the Cowboys drafted small-school prospects. Here’s an overview of all the non-FBS players drafted since 2014:
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| Draft Year | Number of non-FBS football players drafted |
| 2014 | 0 |
| 2015 | 0 |
| 2016 | 0 |
| 2017 | 0 |
| 2018 | 0 |
| 2019 | 0 |
| 2020 | 0 |
| 2021 | 0 |
| 2022 | 1 |
| 2023 | 0 |
| 2024 | 1 |
| 2025 | 0 |
The 2022 pick was fifth-round OL Matt Waletzko out of North Dakota, and even if North Dakota jumped to the FBS Mountain West Conference a few days ago, at the time Waletzko was drafted, he came from a non-FBS school. The 2024 pick is sixth-round WR Ryan Flournoy out of Southeast Missouri State.
With the introduction of NIL, the transfer portal, and a further consolidation of FBS conferences, the college talent is concentrating on fewer and fewer programs, and NFL teams are reacting by focusing even more on players from the Power Five Conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC), or maybe it’s the Power Four now as the Pac-12 figures out its future, but that’s taking us off topic.
The Cowboys of course recognized this development and Stephen Jones even addressed it earlier this year.
And that focus on Power Five schools may have been driven not just by the changing college landscape, but possibly also by the Cowboys track record with non-Power Five prospects. Because over the last 10 drafts, the draft results for non-Power Five picks have been quietly underwhelming. Here’s an overview of the non-Power Five picks over the last decade.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| Year | Rnd | Player | Pos | wAV | G | School | FBS Conference |
| 2025 | 3 | Shavon Revel | CB | 1 | 7 | East Carolina | American |
| 2024 | 2 | Marshawn Kneeland | DL | 2 | 18 | Western Michigan | MAC |
| 2024 | 6 | Ryan Flournoy | WR | 5 | 27 | SE Missouri St. | Non-FBS |
| 2024 | 7 | Nathan Thomas | OL | 3 | 17 | Louisiana | Sun Belt |
| 2023 | 4 | Viliami Fehoko | DL | — | — | San Jose St. | Mountain West |
| 2023 | 6 | Eric Scott | DB | — | — | Southern Miss | Sun Belt |
| 2022 | 1 | Tyler Smith | OL | 33 | 63 | Tulsa | American |
| 2022 | 3 | Jalen Tolbert | WR | 9 | 55 | South Alabama | Sun Belt |
| 2022 | 5 | Matt Waletzko | OL | 0 | 11 | North Dakota | Non-FBS |
| 2021 | 4 | Josh Ball | OL | 1 | 13 | Marshall | Sun Belt |
| 2020 | 4 | Reggie Robinson II | CB | 0 | 5 | Tulsa | American |
| 2020 | 7 | Ben DiNucci | QB | 1 | 3 | James Madison | Sun Belt |
| 2019 | 2 | Trysten Hill | DT | 5 | 34 | Central Florida | American |
| 2018 | 1 | Leighton Vander Esch | OLB | 35 | 71 | Boise St. | Mountain West |
| 2018 | 3 | Michael Gallup | WR | 30 | 86 | Colorado St. | Mountain West |
| 2018 | 5 | Mike White | QB | 5 | 15 | Western Kentucky | CUSA |
| 2018 | 6 | Cedrick Wilson Jr. | WR | 11 | 93 | Boise St. | Mountain West |
| 2017 | 6 | Xavier Woods | S | 38 | 134 | Louisiana Tech | C-Usa |
| 2016 | 6 | Kavon Frazier | S | 4 | 60 | Central Michigan | MAC |
| 2016 | 6 | Darius Jackson | RB | — | 4 | Eastern Michigan | MAC |
Over the last 10 drafts, the Cowboys drafted 104 players, 27 of which (26%) were from non-Power Five conferences. Those 27 players accounted for only 18% of games played and 18% of weighted Approximate Value (wAV). That’s not a good look for the Cowboys but it gets even worse when we break down the last ten drafts by round and separate the Power Five from the non-Power Five prospects.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| # of Picks | 1st round | 2nd round | 3rd round | 4th round | 5th round | 6th round | 7th round | TOTAL |
| Power 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 77 |
| Non-Power 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 27 |
| Total | 11 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 22 | 104 |
| Avg wAV | 1st round | 2nd round | 3rd round | 4th round | 5th round | 6th round | 7th round | AVG |
| Power 5 | 33.3 | 18.5 | 20.6 | 29.1 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 13.1 |
| Non-Power 5 | 34.0 | 3.5 | 13.3 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 9.7 | 2.0 | 6.8 |
In the first round, Power Five vs non-Power Five doesn’t seem to matter. Leighton Vander Esch and Tyler Smith were both excellent picks, and Vander Esch’s health issues had nothing to do with which conference he came from. And the Power Five picks look solid despite including Mazi Smith and Taco Charlton in the tally.
In the second round, Trysten Hill weighs heavily on the average of the non-Power Five, and we don’t know what could have become of Marshawn Kneeland (†). The second round is also not exactly a ringing endorsement for Power Five picks, with underwhelming production from Sam Williams (7 wAV), Luke Schoonmaker (4 wAV), Kelvin Joseph (2 wAV), and even Donovan Ezeiruaku (2 wAV), though there is at least still hope for Ezeiruaku.
The third round looks a little better for the non-Power Five, though that is driven mostly by Michael Gallup (30 wAV).
The fourth round is a complete whiff for non-Power Five picks. CB Reggie Robinson (2020), OT Josh Ball (2021), and DT Viliami Fehoko (2023) combined for just one point of wAV in the NFL. The Power Five numbers are a bit inflated by Dak Prescott (104 wAV). Excluding Prescott, the fourth-round average is 17.5, which is more in line with the previous rounds.
Rounds five through seven haven’t delivered a lot of performance for the Cowboys, either with Power Five or non-Power Five picks. The standout here is Xavier Woods, a non-Power Five pick in the sixth round out of Louisiana Tech. Anthony Brown, Donovan Wilson, and Daron Bland are the positives for the Power Five side.
Few people are going to object to teams spending a late-round pick on a non-Power Five prospect, as those rounds are more of a lottery than anything. But investing valuable mid-round picks in those prospects can be a bit more tricky.
Where teams can get into trouble with their scouting process is when they find enough gems like Larry Allen, for example. Do that often enough and you may come to the belief that your organization is especially adept at unearthing these jewels. And while that may have been true 20 years ago, today’s scouting process by the vast majority of NFL teams is so ubiquitous and so thorough, the college funnel pushing top talent to top teams is so strong, and even high school scouting has improved so much, that the chance of talented players falling through the cracks is virtually non-existent.
But hey, if I had drafted DeMarcus Ware over Shawne Merriman, or Dak Prescott over all the other QBs in the 2016 NFL draft, or even Tyler Smith out of Tulsa in 2022, I’d be feeling pretty full of myself right now too. And every NFL franchise has these examples that makes them feel like they have some specific edge over their competitors – when in fact they just got lucky.
Acknowledging that you are not superior to your competitors (almost impossible for the 32 billionaire narcissistic owners and their staff) is the only way that you’ll see the talent acquisition process for what it is: a process where you can get lucky occasionally, but will increase your chances of success in the long term if you avoid taking unnecessary risks.
And the risks inherent in selecting non-Power Five players are clear: They’ve excelled against inferior competition; many of them relied more on pure athleticism than technique to beat their opponents in college, and that won’t work at the NFL level anymore; many of them face a steeper learning curve in the NFL than big-school prospects; some of them need considerable strength & conditioning time to get NFL-ready. In short, small-school prospects face an arduous uphill climb in the NFL, and not all of them are up to that task.
The Cowboys’ own data shows they can reduce their risk by focusing on Power Five prospects. Will McClay seems to have understood that, though why it took them until 2026 to articulate that is baffling. But can they refuse the allure of going back to the wildcatting ways of yesteryear?
This year specifically, currently absent a second- and third-round pick, watch out for that fourth and fifth round: That is where the rubber is going to hit the road for the Cowboys. Are they just paying lip service or will they actually follow through on their Power Five promise?
Post a Comment