After Black Monday: What happened to preseason “hot seat” coaches?
Black Monday has come and gone, and nine teams are looking for new head coaches. But how do those moves compare to the preseason “hot seat” candidates?
In July last year, Sportsbetting.ag published the odds on which NFL head coach would be fired first in 2025. That dubious distinction ended up going to Brian Callahan in Tennessee who took the honors in 2025.
At the time the odds were published, Brian Daboll of the Giants was listed as the most likely head coach to be fired first, but ended up being second. His firing may end up biting the Giants twice every year as he’s interviewing for the Eagles OC position.
So how did the rest of those preseason odds turn out this year? Here’s an overview of what happened to each head coach since the early odds were released.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| Rank | Coach | Team | Odds | Status |
| 1 | Brian Daboll | NYG | 4/1 | Second coach fired. A 2-8 start and several fourth-quarter collapses sealed the deal. |
| 2 | Mike McDaniel | MIA | 5/1 | Maybe three talented players on that roster, not enough to win games with. |
| 3 | Shane Steichen | IND | 6/1 | Surprise of the year: Daniel Jones can play football. But without Jones, Colts went 0-7. |
| 4 | Kevin Stefanski | CLE | 13/2 | Constant QB drama proved too much for the two-time coach of the year. |
| 5 | Jonathan Gannon | ARI | 7/1 | Warning for Dallas: Couldn’t right the defense, finished bottom 10 in defensive EPA/play in all his three seasons. |
| 6 | Zac Taylor | CIN | 8/1 | All other teams in the division are all looking for new head coaches, 6-11 Bengals soldier on. |
| 7 | Dave Canales | CAR | 9/1 | Surprise playoff participant. |
| 8 | Brian Callahan | TEN | 10/1 | Ended up being the first coach fired. 1-5 season start and 4-19 overall record. |
| 9 | Kyle Shanahan | SF | 16/1 | One of most injured teams storms to 12-5 record. COTY candidate. |
| 10 | Todd Bowles | TB | 22/1 | Close one for Bowles, who missed the postseason for the first time in four years. |
| 11 | Matt LaFleur | GB | 25/1 | Season petered out with four consecutive losses as another defense found out what life without Micah looks like. |
| 11 | Mike Tomlin | PIT | 25/1 | Stepped down from his role after going 0-6 in the playoffs over the last nine seasons. |
| 11 | Sean McVay | LA | 25/1 | Secure as he’ll ever be in LA. |
| 14 | Kevin O’Connell | MIN | 40/1 | May not be able to afford another season that ends without a playoff berth. |
| 14 | Raheem Morris | ATL | 40/1 | Two successive 8-9 seasons spelled the end for Morris. |
| 16 | Demeco Ryans | HOU | 50/1 | Three winning seasons, three playoff appearances, three stops in the divisional round. |
| 16 | Sean McDermott | BUF | 50/1 | 9 seasons in, 8 of which with Josh Allen, but no Super Bowl anywhere. |
| 18 | John Harbaugh | BAL | 66/1 | Surprise ending in Baltimore. |
| 18 | Mike Macdonald | SEA | 66/1 | Can he get DeMarcus Lawrence a Super Bowl ring? |
| 18 | Sean Payton | DEN | 66/1 | Payton looks to have the Broncos on track for the next few years. |
| 21 | Ben Johnson | CHI | 100/1 | The Cowboys didn’t even want to interview him and he lapped them in one year. |
| 21 | Brian Schottenheimer | DAL | 100/1 | No.2 offense by yards, No. 30 defense by yards allowed. Not the complementary football we were promised. |
| 21 | Dan Campbell | DET | 100/1 | Losing two coordinators in one year (Ben Johnson, Aaron Glenn) proved too much. |
| 21 | Dan Quinn | WAS | 100/1 | Injuries derailed 2025, but expecattions are high for 2026. Too high? |
| 21 | Jim Harbaugh | LAC | 100/1 | Can the Chargers do more than just lose in the wild card round? |
| 26 | Aaron Glenn | NYJ | 150/1 | Lots of optimism heading into the season, followed by a rude awakening. Now the No. 2 pick awaits. |
| 26 | Kellen Moore | NO | 150/1 | Tough job, but our boy did good, finishing 4-1 after a 2-10 start. |
| 26 | Liam Coen | JAX | 150/1 | Forced a change at GM when he was hired, bold move that paid out handsomely. |
| 29 | Pete Carroll | LV | 200/1 | One-and-done in Vegas, but at least he gifted them the No. 1 pick in the draft. |
| 30 | Mike Vrabel | NE | 250/1 | Took the Pats from 4-13 to 14-3. History in NE as a player makes him safe for years to come. |
| 31 | Andy Reid | KC | 500/1 | What happens if Mahomes doesn’t came back in time for 2026? |
| 31 | Nick Sirianni | PHI | 500/1 | Nobody seems happy in Philly, and strangely, it feels like Sirianni is doing all he can to keep it that way. |
From this list, it looks like the preseason odds were a good early indicator of what would eventually happen during and after the season. The obvious surprise on this list is Pete Carrol, who went to Vegas with high expectations but managed to win only three games.
The Cowboys stumbled to their second seven-win season in two years. It’s hard to imagine that the Cowboys would accept another such disappointing season, regardless of the circumstances. Brian Schottenheimer probably needs to reach the playoffs next season to be absolutely safe. But would a winning record also be enough? Or does it have to be a playoff win, or perhaps two? Or is he safe regardless of what happens?
What do you think the Cowboys need to achieve in 2026 for Shotty to get a third year in Dallas?
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