Cowboys need best version of Dak Prescott to outduel Jared Goff vs. Lions

The Dallas Cowboys play their second to last non-Sunday game of the season at the Detroit Lions here in Week 14, drawing the broadcast team of Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit for the first time in 2025. On paper, this is as good of a matchup as has been on Amazon’s TNF all season.

The normal circumstances are different in this game as both teams are coming off a full week of rest, playing back-to-back Thursdays after doing their annual hosting on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys beat the Chiefs in the most watched NFL game ever on Thanksgiving, and now will play on the Thursday following Turkey Day for the first time since 2018 when they beat Washington on the holiday and New Orleans the following week. That win against the Saints extended the Cowboys’ win streak to four games, which is what they’ll also be vying for at the Lions this week.

The Lions are playing this rare Thursday-Thursday double-dip for just the second time ever, but second time in a row as well. Last season, the Lions beat the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving, at the time coached by current Cowboys defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus. The following Thursday, they beat another division rival in the Green Bay Packers. This time around, it will be a loss to the Packers the Lions are coming off of to play the Cowboys for the fourth season in a row, now trailing the Bears in the NFC North.

Playoff stakes are on the line for both teams with the Cowboys over .500 for the first time all year at 6-5-1 and the Lions at 7-5. The Lions have been in the playoffs each of the last two seasons under Dan Campbell, winning 15 and 12 games. To win 12 games this season, the Lions would need to win out starting against the Cowboys. The expectation around the Lions despite not having back-to-back wins since weeks four and five is still to be a playoff team after being the top seed a year ago, but right now that top spot belongs to their rival the Bears, and the Lions are trying to re-find themselves in a hurry.

Their opponent this week, the Cowboys, have found themselves in a huge way in their wins against the Eagles and Chiefs, and with that are also rapidly growing their own expectation of reaching the playoffs under first-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer. He already has one win against each NFC East rival, and beat his former team the Jets, and former mentor Pete Carroll with the Raiders, as well as Andy Reid coaching his father’s former team with the Chiefs. A part of last season’s 47-9 Cowboys loss to the Lions at home though, avenging that game and beating a third straight contender would be a lion-sized step even further in the right direction for the Cowboys entering December in the hunt.

The Cowboys and Lions playing against each other has become a bit of a measuring stick game in recent seasons, and coming into Thursday both teams measure up very similarly. Let’s take our weekly look at what it will take for the Cowboys to come out on top, or for the Lions to improve to 5-2 at home this year.

The Dallas Cowboys will beat the Detroit Lions if…

they win in short yardage situations on defense.

This game has the feel of one where big plays for either offense could come early and often, with the winning edge going to whichever side sustains the most drives and finishes in the red zone. These are also two passing offenses that thrive the most when their play-action game is working, and converting in short yardage with the run as well as short play-action is a great way to open the deep shots that both Dak Prescott and Jared Goff love to take.

In their Thanksgiving loss to the Packers, the Lions had two turnovers on downs in the second half that cost them dearly in a one-score game that didn’t go their way for the third time in a row. The Lions scored a touchdown in the final minute of the first half to cut the Packers lead to 17-14, and had a chance to double up starting with the ball in the third quarter. On four straight runs to Jahmyr Gibbs, the Lions failed to get ten yards as they had negative runs on third and fourth down to turn the ball over. The Packers struck in two plays with a 51-yard touchdown to reclaim a two-score lead, one they wouldn’t let go of. The Lions never touched the ball again down by less than 10, and on one such possession ran over five minutes off the clock before getting stopped on fourth down again.

The fundamentals of the Cowboys defense have been night-and-day different, and improved, over the winning streak, but few players will challenge their tackling and pursuit angles more than Gibbs in this matchup. The Lions also have David Montgomery who has double-digit carries in Detroit’s last three games, and is more of a bruiser between the tackles compared to Gibbs.

If the Lions are converting in short yardage regularly against the Cowboys, the pass rush opportunities won’t be there as often as Dallas would hope. They will also be able to target the Cowboys safety group with their layered passing concepts, keep this defense on its heels, and decide this game with their best players mostly on the field.

On the flip side, if the Cowboys new and improved defensive tackle rotation can help Dallas get a few stops in these situations, the game of possessions and field position will swing towards the Cowboys, putting their best skill players on the field in more favorable situations, and opening up a path to win this game on the road.

The Dallas Cowboys will lose to the Detroit Lions if…

they struggle against the speed of their front seven.

The Cowboys will be without starting left tackle Tyler Guyton for the second game in a row against the Lions. They have plenty of reasons to believe in backup Nathan Thomas in Guyton’s spot based on more than just his performance against the Chiefs, but the entirety of the Lions front seven defensively presents a challenge across the board for the Cowboys offensive line. One of Thomas’ best traits as a blocker is his ability to climb to the second level and run block downhill, but doing so against the speed of the Lions defense is not easy.

This is one of the fastest defenses the Cowboys will play against this season. They’ll need to identify pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson pre-snap on every play, lining up against the Cowboys for the first time since his season-ending injury at AT&T Stadium in last year’s Lions win at the Cowboys. The playmaking ability up front doesn’t end with Hutchinson though, as Detroit also has linebackers Jack Campbell and Alex Anzalone. The Dallas offense has done a great job attacking the edges of a defense with high percentage throws for Prescott, but the Lions aggressive defense coordinated by former player Kelvin Sheppard also does a great job contesting these types of short to intermediate throws. They will fly to the ball against the run and make it difficult for the Cowboys to spring the big, game-changing runs that Javonte Williams and, after last week, Malik Davis, are capable of.

Prescott and Schottenheimer won’t want to see this be a pocket passing game looking for deep shots and going against the Lions pass rush as the go-to plan offensively. The Lions secondary will be without safety Kerby Joseph and corner Terrion Arnold who was just placed on IR. Not letting their front seven wreck the game will be the biggest key to attacking the depth players Detroit will be forced to use on the backend, and maximize the impact Lamb and Pickens can make for a full 60 minutes.

So many phases of this game feels like a heavyweight fight with marquee players across the board, and two quarterbacks trying to will their teams to the playoffs. The help these QBs will be a determining factor, and in order for the Cowboys to win here they’ll need one of their best protection plans and penalty-free operations of the season on offense. Prescott has been masterful at the line of scrimmage handling these types of things this season, but doing so in a tough road environment is an advantage for the Lions on Thursday.

The Cowboys will have to win as underdogs again, which is not something that scares them in the slightest in the midst of the winning streak they’ll look to keep alive as the calendar turns to December.