Cowboys analytics roundup: Still room to improve down the stretch

The Dallas Cowboys had a brief moment where they had tricked everyone into thinking they were becoming some unstoppable force. Reality crashed into them against the Lions on Thursday night, but it doesn’t take away from the positives this team has actually exhibited as of late. Lets dive into the analytics as we prepare for one final playoff push.

	DVOA	DVOA Rank	DVOA Rank Previous Rank	Weighted DVOA	Weighted DVOA Rank
Offense	10.8%	9th	9th	10.3%	8th
Defense	17.5%	31st	31st	16.5%	30th
Special Teams	1.5%	13th	10th	1.2%	15th
Overall	-5.2%	19th	19th	-4.2%	18th

The Cowboys are the 19th best team by DVOA, which feels about right. With 14 teams making the playoffs, that means they’re just on the outside of that threshold. It’s worth noting that three of their four remaining opponents all rank below them in DVOA, as do two of the teams ahead of them in the conference standings.

Let’s highlight special teams real quick, because it’s been bad. Not only is Dallas third in special teams penalties, but they’re also 25th in hidden points, a DVOA metric that measures the advantage gained by the opponent’s special teams unit. Things like average starting field position and penalties are big there, and it paints a picture of how bad Nick Sorensen’s unit has been outside of his two star players.

The Cowboys remain firmly in the bottom right of the team tiers chart, which just reinforces what we’ve known about this team all year long: really good offense, really bad defense. Again, though, three of their four opponents are far behind them here; the one outlier, the Chargers, are nearly even with Dallas in total EPA, albeit with a better defense and worse offense.

Offense

	Grade	Rank
Offensive DVOA	10.8%	9th
Pass DVOA	27.1%	9th
Run DVOA	-2.8%	15th
EPA/Play	0.116	5th
EPA/Dropback	0.192	6th
EPA/Rush	-0.028	13th

The Cowboys didn’t have their best offensive performance this past week, with turnovers looming large, but they remain inside the top 10 in most metrics. That’s a testament to how efficient this unit has been all season long. One thing to note: the run game has fallen off a bit recently. Javonte Williams is still playing well, but he hasn’t been the missed tackle machine he was earlier in the year.

	Grade	Rank
QBR	73.4	1st
EPA/play	0.198	6th
CPOE	3.7	4th
EPA+CPOE Composite	0.144	6th
Success Rate	49.8%	8th

Dak Prescott threw two interceptions against the Lions, yes, but both were registered as drops. And 13 games in, only two quarterbacks have had more dropped passes this season, which makes Prescott’s numbers here all the more impressive. He’s having his best season yet, and just needs a defense that can yield fewer than 40 points in a game. Which, apparently, is too much to ask.

	Grade	Rank
Pressure Rate	30.9%	10th
Adjusted Sack Rate	4.8%	4th
Pass Block Win Rate	65%	12th
Run Block Win Rate	71%	17th
Adjusted Line Yards	4.81	4th

Prescott was sacked five times on Thursday, yet his adjusted sack rate only dropped from third to fourth. That highlights how good he’s been at avoiding sacks all year, especially as Dallas has battled through a myriad of injuries along the offensive line.

Defense

	Grade	Rank
Defensive DVOA	17.5%	31st
Pass Defense DVOA	27.8%	30th
Run Defense DVOA	3.3%	29th
Pressure Rate	35.1%	14th
Pass Rush Win Rate	39%	12th
Run Stop Win Rate	32%	6th
EPA/Play	0.140	29th
EPA/Dropback Allowed	0.198	30th
EPA/Rush Allowed	0.035	29th

Yes, the Lions game will drop the Cowboys back towards the cellar on defense, but it doesn’t erase the positive momentum they made before that. Since the trade deadline, Dallas is 20th in EPA/play allowed and 16th in success rate allowed. Neither of those are going to get Matt Eberflus another head coaching gig, but it’s good enough to win the majority of games played.

And, what do you know, the Cowboys are 3-1 since the trade deadline.

	Targets	Completions	Completion Rate	Passer Rating Allowed	ADOT When Targeted	Air Yards Allowed	Yards After Catch
Trevon Diggs	15	11	73.3%	154.9	16.9	172	44
DaRon Bland	72	49	68.1%	107.4	9.7	373	247
Kaiir Elam	39	24	61.5%	112.6	12.2	223	91
Shavon Revel	12	8	66.7%	117.7	72.0	21	0
Reddy Steward	36	31	86.1%	97.8	3.2	54	215
Trikweze Bridges	23	15	65.2%	115.6	15.1	174	34
Caelen Carson	11	7	63.6%	101.7	13.7	106	17
Malik Hooker	10	9	90.0%	152.1	15.1	95	63
Donovan Wilson	28	21	75.0%	108.2	10.7	154	73
Juanyeh Thomas	3	3	100.0%	143.8	2.3	7	20
Markquese Bell	16	13	81.3%	104.2	6.4	59	105
DeMarvion Overshown	15	15	100.0%	121.9	1.2	18	101
Logan Wilson	13	10	76.9%	122.3	5.3	14	81
Jack Sanborn	12	11	91.7%	107.3	7.2	61	56
Marist Liufau	15	14	93.3%	137.2	4.2	46	128
Kenneth Murray	44	34	77.3%	105.0	4.2	101	226
Shemar James	28	26	92.9%	128.3	2.8	73	181
Damone Clark	7	5	71.4%	84.2	4.7	17	21

Trevon Diggs may be returning this week, though we’ll have to wait until he actually takes the field to believe it. Even if Diggs does return, the numbers here suggest there isn’t much hope in sight for the Cowboys pass defense. The defensive backs appear to not trust the scheme they’re running, which is never a good sign.