Is trading CeeDee Lamb financially possible for Cowboys? Recent WR swap history
Let’s get this out of the way early. No, the Cowboys aren’t looking to and aren’t going to trade CeeDee Lamb. This is an exercise looking at the wide receiver market in a Marvel “What If?”-style look at the football multiverse.
If the Cowboys were looking to trade Lamb, what kind of haul could they get for him? Lamb has been tremendous since joining the Cowboys five years ago. He’s made four straight Pro Bowls and three-straight All-Pro teams, two of them First-Team. In 2023 when he had a franchise QB all season, he led the NFL in receptions with 135, and was finished third in Offensive Player of the Year voting.
Suffice to say, the wide receiver market would be popping if Lamb were in it. Which again, he isn’t and won’t be.
But what kind of compensation could Lamb bring?
Looking at recent wide receiver trades, there’s a good sense as to the value that is placed on true No. 1 wideouts.
Recent WR Value in Trades
The first trade to look at already involves the Cowboys, who acquired Amari Cooper from the Raiders in a straight swap for Dallas’ 2019 first-round pick. As this was an in-season trade, there was no confirmed pick, but it ended up being the No. 19 overall selection.
Cooper had a strong start to his career, but his numbers do not compare to Lamb’s production.
During that offseason, the New York Giants traded star WR Odell Beckham to the Cleveland Browns. There were three starters thrown in as well, but the total compensation (No. 17 + No. 95) basically worked out to the No. 13 pick in the draft based on trade value chart points.
Beckham, based on playing just 16 games over the prior two seasons, was no longer considered at the level Lamb currently exists.
The following year saw the infamous Vikings-Bills trade that sent Stefon Diggs to New York State and saw Minnesota land Justin Jefferson. The actual trade was for four picks, which equated to be around the No. 19 pick in total value.
At the time of the trade, Diggs had never made a Pro Bowl or All-Pro team. Another exchange for a player slightly under Lamb’s level.
2022 saw a ton of WR movement.
Tyreek Hill was sent from Kansas City to Miami for picks No. 29, 50 and 121, along with fourth and sixth rounders in the next year’s haul. All together, the compensation was worth around No. 12 in the first round.
Hill is a great comparison to Lamb, as he was six-for-six in Pro Bowl appearances and three-time First-Team All-Pro. He’s the ceiling.
Davante Adams was traded that year as well, for the No. 22 and No. 53 picks, which equate to the the value of No. 13 overall.
Adams was substantially older than Lamb, but had made five straight Pro Bowls and was named to two consecutive All-Pro First-Teams.
The third trade that year was the Philadelphia Eagles acquiring AJ Brown from Tennessee for the No. 18 and No. 101 picks. That equals around the No 16 pick.
At the time of the trade, Brown’s career high in catches was 70 and yards in a season was just 1,075.
WR Salary Impact on Trades
Adams and Hill were rewarded with top-of-the-market extensions when they landed with their new teams, as did Brown. Diggs had to wait two seasons for a new deal once in Buffalo. Beckham was just one year into his deal when he was traded, so he played that out with Cleveland.
The Cowboys had 2.5 years of control over Cooper before he was able to land a new contract.
Lamb’s contract is currently top of the market and only one year in, so his scenario would likely mirror Beckham’s where he’d play it out in his fictional new city.
Without having to pay the signing bonus, his acquiring team would sort of be be getting a discount, along with the fact that 2025 is the last of Lamb’s guaranteed money. His contract wouldn’t negatively impact any trade value.
Lamb’s Trade Value
All of the trades above landed the trading team pick values between the No. 12 and No. 19 selections. The two closest comps as far as league accomplishments, Adams and Hill, both landed at the top of that scale.
If the Cowboys were interested in trading CeeDee Lamb, they’d likely be able to land compensation in the range of the No. 12 overall pick; which just so happens to be where Dallas is picking this year.
Impact of trading Lamb on Cowboys cap
Surprisingly, the Cowboys could theoretically absorb trading Lamb away and coming out in a better cap scenario.
Lamb’s deal included base salary guarantees for 2024 and 2025, but as a trade his 2025 salary wouldn’t leave any dead money as the acquiring team would pay his base salary plus game-day bonuses (total $27.85 million).
Lamb’s original signing bonus was $38 million, of which $7.6 million was on last year’s cap and another $7.6 million already accounted for in this year’s cap.
That means that the remaining $22.8 million would accelerate onto this year’s cap, which is less than his base salary. Dallas would be without the weapon, but there would be cap savings in addition to the trade compensation.
Altogether though, if the Cowboys traded him this offseason, Dallas would have paid $40 million to Lamb for his 2024 season, which clearly is not ideal.
Post a Comment