Draft Jeanty? That's not the question Cowboys should be asking themselves

There are two main camps when it comes to Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty and the Dallas Cowboys, who own the 12th overall pick in the upcoming draft. One school of thought says he’s an electrifying ballcarrier who runs with power and strength and almost otherworldly balance. He doesn’t seek out contact, but he breaks tackles at an astonishing clip.

But despite the just-turned-21-year-old having posting the second-best rushing season in college football history, there’s still a vocal contingent of draftniks who scream, “Never draft a running back in the first round!”

So which is it? Is Jeanty the “generational” talent that truly warrants a Day 1 pick? Or should Dallas still feel so burned by the way Ezekiel Elliott’s career flamed out that they wait until later rounds to get a cheaper- but also less dynamic- backfield contributor just to save themselves the headache?

“Is Jeanty worth the 12th pick?” probably isn’t the right question, and it’s doubtful the Cowboys brass is really asking that. The Frisco, Tex. kid will light up the league no matter who selects him. The real question isn’t about what Jeanty can do in 2025… or 2026, 2027, or even 2028.

It’s about what the team that takes him does in 2029.

To illustrate, let’s take a look at every running back that’s been picked in the first round over the past 10 drafts. Let’s examine what they’ve done on the field: their rushing and receiving yards per season over the life of their five-year rookie contracts (or at least so far, in several cases), their yards-per-carry average, and their touchdowns scored per season. And let’s also see who’s stayed with the team that drafted them for five full seasons after being drafted.

DrftYr	RB (drafting team, draft slot)	ScrmYds/Yr1-5	YPC1-5	TD/Yr1-5	Same team 1-5?
2024	none
2023	Bijan Robinson (ATL, 8)	1,675	4.7	11.5	Yes
	Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, 12)	1,575	5.5	15.5	Yes
2022	none
2021	Najee Harris (PIT, 24)	1,365.3	3.9	8.5	Yes
	Travis Etienne (JAX, 25)	1,245.7	4.2	6.3	Yes
2020	Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC, 32)	536	4.2	3.8	No
2019	Josh Jacobs (OAK, 24)	1,398.6	4.2	9.2	Yes
2018	Saquon Barkley (NYG, 2)	1,213.8	4.5	7.4	Yes
	Rashaad Penny (SEA, 27)	428	5.7	2.8	Yes
	Sony Michel (NE, 31)	736.4	4.2	4	No
2017	Leonard Fournette (JAX, 4)	1,101.2	4	7	No
	Christian McCaffrey (CAR, 8)	1,320.4	4.6	9.4	Yes
2016	Ezekiel Elliott (DAL, 4)	1,668.2	4.5	11.2	Yes
2015	Todd Gurley (STL, 10)	1,498.8	4.3	14	Yes
	Melvin Gordon (SD, 15)	1,222.6	4	9.4	Yes