Week 18 rooting guide for Cowboys draft pick improvement

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The Cowboys could have the 11th pick in the 2025 NFL Draft if some Week 18 games go their way.

With just one more week to go in the 2024 regular season and no shot at the playoffs, the Dallas Cowboys’ place in the 2025 NFL Draft order will soon be confirmed. Currently sitting at the 13th pick, they could still move up a couple of spots or fall a few depending on this weekend’s games.

For the uninitiated, draft order is determined by overall record with an initial tiebreaker of teams’ strength of schedule. The SOS is the average winning percentage of every team faced in the current season, so there’s still room for a little shift in those numbers based on the Week 18 outcomes.

Here is the current order based on records and SOS tiebreakers:

1. New England Patriots (3-13)
2. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
3. Cleveland Browns (3-13)
4. New York Giants (3-13)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
6. Carolina Panthers (4-12)
7. New York Jets (4-12)
8. Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
9. Chicago Bears (4-12)
10. New Orleans Saints (5-11)
11. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
12. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
13. Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
14. Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
15. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
16. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
17. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
18. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)

With just one game left, Dallas can move up no higher than the 11th pick and drop no further than the 17th pick. Obviously, their own game against the Commanders will have the biggest impact on whether they rise or fall. But the other teams in that 11-17 range could also have a bearing on the Cowboys’ eventual draft slot.

If Dallas loses to Washington, only two other games really matter:

49ers over Cardinals
Colts over Jaguars

Indianapolis over Jacksonville is obvious. The Jaguars are out of reach and Indy is currently tied with Dallas in overall record. They also have a lower SOS of .473 compared to .508 for the Cowboys and would maintain that tiebreaker if both teams lose. So if Dallas is going to move past the Colts in the draft order, we need to get behind them in the overall standings.

While the 49ers winning would only move them into an overall tie with Dallas, they have a high .574 SOS that should cost them the tiebreaker. That would allow the Cowboys to potentially climb into that 11th spot.

If Arizona loses and Dallas wins, that does mean both teams finish 8-9 on the year. But the Cardinals’ current .547 SOS shouldn’t drop low enough to fall below the Cowboys, so we’d still have the tiebreaker.

If Dallas beats Washington, these outcomes would at least help us not fall too far in the draft order:

Dolphins over Jets
Falcons over Panthers
Bengals over Steelers

Cincinnati and Miami should finish with lower SOS ratings than Dallas, so we don’t want to wind up tied with them. The Falcons only matter if they don’t win the NFC South, which requires them to win and for 9-7 Tampa Bay to lose against the Saints. Both will be playing to win against bad teams, so Atlanta should stay out of our hair.