Cowboys Point/Counterpoint: Whoever next year’s coach is will have their work cut out for them
What do you want to see the Cowboys do about their head coaching situation?
The Dallas Cowboys won again, beating the Carolina Panthers rather comfortably and making it three wins in four games. Naturally, the win once again stoked debate about Mike McCarthy and his job security, as there seems to be growing optimism for the head coach with each new victory. That said, many in the fan base aren’t exactly thrilled about the idea.
Greg Olsen, who was the commentator for the game this past Sunday, once again made a stump speech for McCarthy to remain as the Cowboys head coach, having previously vouched for him while the Cowboys were getting blown out in the playoffs against Green Bay. Olsen’s argument essentially amounted to suggesting that there isn’t a coach out there who can fix the issues McCarthy is dealing with right now. In Olsen’s eyes, if you can’t find an upgrade, continuity should be preferred.
There are plenty who disagree, of course. The Cowboys are far from perfect, but many view McCarthy as the problem that needs to be fixed. Still, others feel that the 2025 season will have plenty of challenges regardless of who the coach is. Our own Tom Ryle and David Howman try to dissect how much of the problem is McCarthy and how much can be fixed by him or any other coach.
Tom: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before - or just bear with me. The biggest issue is the huge mess they have with the salary cap. They’ve just tied themselves to Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb with their massive contracts. One of the first priorities has to be restructuring those for space to work with next year, which of course means the cycle will repeat itself. They should avoid going to the well again with Zack Martin’s contract, because the end of his illustrious career is not far off.
Most of what they free up will likely get eaten by a new deal for Micah Parsons, adding yet another contract they will have to restructure and manage. And so on and so on. Additionally, rising stars like Rico Dowdle and Osa Odighizuwa are set to enter free agency, and it is going to be hard to retain many, with the ownership seeming very content to pocket more compensatory picks.
All this means that once again Dallas will be bargain-bin shopping in free agency. Sometimes it feels like they set things up so they have no choice. We know there is a huge aversion to paying for outside talent. That is something that has limited this team severely over the past decade or so, and that one is still going to be facing a new head coach.
There is one big reason why a better option may not exist at head coach. Many don’t want to come to an organization where they are so at the mercy of the owner and his son to build up the roster each year. McCarthy appears to be content to deal with that, and would probably not hesitate to sign a new contract to stay.
David: I think I agree with your overall point here, though I think the cap issues are a bit overstated. As of right now, Dallas is seventh in cap space with just under $20 million. A good chunk of that will be carried over to next season and is likely earmarked for Micah Parsons. They’re also currently projected to have just over $22 million next year, though that number could very well go up based on where the actual cap is set.
There are some different ways they could boost that number, too. A Zack Martin retirement helps, and injury statuses for DeMarvion Overshown and Trevon Diggs could provide relief depending on offsetting language. All in all, the Cowboys will have the capability to extend Parsons (though, for the record, I believe that’s headed to a franchise tag first) and still make some moves in free agency.
Not to say that I expect them to do that, because this front office just isn’t philosophically aligned to be big spenders. And as frustrating as it can be sometimes, the approach is somewhat justified. Since 2007, the Cowboys have the sixth-highest winning percentage in the NFL. Outside of Brandon Carr, they haven’t been big spenders in free agency over that span but have still managed to win lots of games.
They’re also sixth in win percentage during the Mike McCarthy years, a testament to the fact that this approach doesn’t hinder them from fielding competitive teams. That’s not to say that there aren’t any flaws with the strategy - there absolutely are - but McCarthy has proven capable of winning in this environment. In my opinion, that’s a ringing endorsement for keeping him around.
Tom: I don’t know about the ringing endorsement, but it’s a sound argument. Here’s another thing to add. McCarthy has done a remarkable job getting three wins over the last four games with what is a severely decimated roster. He is getting more out of Cooper Rush than we could expect, and now CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle are having standout performances on a weekly basis. Others are stepping up, most importantly both lines.
That says something about the relationship McCarthy has with his players, and that would take time to establish for a new face. No matter the quality of a replacement head coach, he will need time to get the roster to buy into his program.
Even more, there would be new offensive and defensive systems to learn, assuming Mike Zimmer is also gone. John Fassel would probably be a thing of the past as well.
The team’s belief in McCarthy has already been demonstrated. Not only do they know him, he knows them. He is better able than anyone to get the best out of this team. He may not be able to turn things around in one season, but he would get further than anyone else. At least that’s how I see it.
David: To add to your point, McCarthy is doing this with a decimated roster, yes. But the roster wasn’t exactly stellar even before the injuries set in. The front office is always conservative in free agency, but this year seemed especially conservative, which is why everyone assumed Jerry Jones was setting his coach up to fail.
Nobody is going to pretend like the Cowboys were playing great football before Dak Prescott went down, but they very nearly came back in that Ravens game and had a halftime lead over the 49ers (who, by the way, have succumbed to injuries since that game way more than the Cowboys have). They’re also one of just four teams to beat the Steelers this year, and so far the only one to beat them in Pittsburgh.
There are some things McCarthy could do better, and he likely knows that, but this thing is far from being unsalvageable. If the Joneses can commit to a slightly more aggressive offseason strategy - think the offseason that brought in Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore at low costs - and Will McClay can ace what should still be a fairly valuable draft pick, McCarthy will have some ingredients to cook with next year.
So, too, would Mike Zimmer. And with the way this defense is playing lately, the prospect of keeping Zimmer might be the most appealing argument for coaching continuity.
Tom: I can’t disagree with your points. Look, I thought that McCarthy had been set up to fail, and still suspect that was the case. But he kept his head down and now he has made a real case that Jerry is not going to be able to do any better than him.
We’re just guessing about what is going to happen. But seeing what has gone on, it looks more and more that the talk about bringing the head coach back wasn’t just Jerry doing his normal bloviating. It may seem more and more like this is the best path forward given the coaching landscape nowadays.
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