Cowboys analytics roundup: Dallas still has work to do

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Number suggest the Cowboys are finding themselves a bit as the season draws to a close.

The Cowboys did it again. They beat a hot Buccaneers team to notch their fourth win in five tries and are one fluke play away from having a five-game winning streak and a winning record. It’s been an impressive turnaround, to say the least, but what does it actually mean?

With just two weeks left to go in the regular season, we have a pretty strong sample size to go off of. Let’s dive into the analytics for a look at how efficient the Cowboys really are right now.

Not a whole lot of movement here from last week to this week, as the Cowboys have been pretty inefficient throughout the year. However, their weighted DVOA rankings are much better, especially on defense.

Special teams deserves a shoutout. They’ve remained inside the top three all year long, even after the costly blunder against the Bengals. John Fassel continues to be one of the very best special teams coordinators in the league.

2024 NFL Team Tiers, Weeks 1-16, courtesy of rbsdm.com

The Cowboys have seen a bit more upward momentum in the EPA-based team tiers, though not much. They’re now slightly ahead of the Titans and slightly behind the Patriots, who just lost by a field goal to the Bills after leading at halftime.

However, if we narrow the sample size to the last five weeks when the Cowboys have turned things on, it looks very different. Since Week 12, the Cowboys are tied with the Commanders for 12th in total team EPA/play; that’s the same Commanders team that just beat the Eagles, who host the Cowboys next. The improved play is definitely not a mirage.

Offense

The offense didn’t see much improvement this week, though that should’ve been expected against a really good Buccaneers defense. They played well enough on offense, and most importantly did not have a single turnover despite facing one of the more opportunistic defenses in the league.

The run game took a big step back, though it’s not as bad as it seems. Dallas didn’t lean on the ground game the way they have been in recent weeks, largely because of Vita Vea and a really tough front seven. Still, their rushing efficiency numbers took a hit for the first time in nearly a month.

If you trust Pro Football Focus player grades, Cooper Rush had his best game of the year on Sunday night. That isn’t exactly saying a lot, but he completed nearly three quarters of his pass attempts and fell just shy of 300 passing yards.

Rush’s season-long efficiency numbers are now creeping up into the top 32 across the board, a positive development for him. Rush has gotten better every week, and the offense is humming now that he’s in a groove.

For all the criticism that offensive line coach Mike Solari gets, here’s some well-earned praise: the offensive line is playing really well right now despite an onslaught of injuries. The decision to keep rotating rookie Tyler Guyton remains frustrating, but the unit as a whole is thriving.

They’re just outside the top five in both pressure rate and adjusted sack rate, and the line was on a heater in run blocking too. This week saw their adjusted line yards dip dramatically, but 12th is still pretty good given all the injuries.

Defense

Baker Mayfield came into this game as one of the league’s best when throwing under pressure, but Mike Zimmer was able to fluster him all the same. It wasn’t a terrible performance from Mayfield, but he missed several crucial throws and was under pressure at the third-highest rate he’s seen all year.

The run defense managed to hold their weight somewhat, too. By no means did they shut down Tampa Bay, but Dallas didn’t simply get bowled over time and time again the way the Buccaneers have done to other opponents.

The secondary had some really big plays in this game. Donovan Wilson had a couple of big pass breakups; Jourdan Lewis had that incredible endzone touchdown; and DaRon Bland made the game-sealing play at the end.

Perhaps most impressive was the fact that the Cowboys kept Mayfield from airing it out deep on them. The gunslinger quarterback completed just one of his six attempts of 20+ yards down the field, a single-game low for him this season.