Cowboys vs Giants: Writer predictions for Thanksgiving showdown
Do you think the Cowboys win a game at home?
It’s that time again, as the age old tradition of Dallas Cowboys football on Thanksgiving Day is nearly upon us. This year, they play host to a 2-9 Giants team that hasn’t won a game since October 6. Last week, they benched and later cut Daniel Jones, turning to Tommy DeVito to start going forward.
DeVito and the Giants got blown out by the Buccaneers, and the quarterback suffered an injury in the game that has his status for this one up in the air. Either way, the Cowboys are only 3.5-point favorites, a reflection of the fact that they have yet to win a home game all year. Will this be the one? Let’s see what our writers think.
When New York has the ball
Pressure whichever quarterback is back there
Whether it’s Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock or the ghost of Charlie Conerly, the Giants offense is a mess right now. The run game has been predictably bad, and the pass game is even worse. They’re especially bad, though, when under pressure: only three teams have a worse EPA/dropback this year when pressured.
Enter Mike Zimmer and the Cowboys defense. They’ve taken off since Micah Parsons returned, and come into this game ranked sixth in pressure rate. And with DaRon Bland returning last week, as well as the emergence of Josh Butler, the defense as a whole has been at its best when getting in quarterbacks’ faces. That’s the key to success this Thanksgiving.
When Dallas has the ball
Feed Rico (again)
Cowboys fans have seen plenty of bad run defense this year, but so have Giants fans. In fact, the Giants are 31st in EPA/run, ever so slightly ahead of the Cowboys. They’ve actually been worse than Dallas against runs inside the tackles, a surprise given the presence of Dexter Lawrence.
Well, nobody runs the ball inside the tackles more often than Dallas, who fed Rico Dowdle last week to successful returns. Dowdle posted a 52.6% success rate on his 19 carries, the ninth-best mark of any back in Week 12. Riding Dowdle against a weak Giants run defense is the key to victory on the short week.
Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers...
Tom Ryle (7-4):
I think this may be the first time in 2024 the Cowboys have come into a game with the superior roster despite the rash of injuries, and I’m pretty sure Cooper Rush is a better quarterback than Tommy Devito (or Drew Lock). The great fear is that they could have a letdown after the bizarre, emotional win over the Commanders. Countering that is how the Giants have already signaled they are in major rebuild mode with the release of Daniel Jones.
I’ll take Dallas this time to win, 24-16, and hope I don’t jinx them.
Matt Holleran (6-5):
It’s hard to believe, but Sunday’s performance was the best we’ve seen the Cowboys play in nearly two months. While it wasn’t perfect by any means, they did beat a then 7-4 Washington team on the road, which is certainly a good accomplishment. This week the Cowboys finally have a chance to build on some momentum as they face off against a struggling New York Giants team.
It won’t be the domination we saw from Dallas on Thanksgiving the past two seasons, but they should be able to win this game. Their lack of offensive firepower will keep it close, but Dallas gets their second-straight division win and gives us all a happy Turkey Day.
Give me the Cowboys, 24-16.
Jess Haynie (8-3):
Dallas will have the better quarterback and seem like they’re not ready to openly tank just yet, while the Giants have made their intentions clear. Dallas finally gets a home win, albeit cheaply given the opponent.
Cowboys 27, Giants 16.
Mike Poland (5-6):
Ok, let’s get into the positive, optimistic, Thanksgiving spirit and call another win for Dallas. The Giants offense are now looking to Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock to try and restore order back to an offense that ranks last in passing touchdowns.
Last week DeVito threw zero touchdowns. Getting sacks and pressures on the QB will seriously disrupt what little hope the offense has, but now the Giants offensive line is looking at both starting tackles to miss the game. Yeeeesh!
Cowboys win, 24-14.
Dana Bartholomew (8-3):
For the first time in a while, I’m going to go with the Cowboys winning this week. I’m still not confident in this Cowboys team. It took a wacky circus-ending to pull it off last week against the Commanders. So this pick is less about the Cowboys and more about how bad the Giants are. These teams are a bit different than last time around now with Cooper Rush and Tommy DeVito/Drew Lock leading the offenses, but the outcome should be the same.
Cowboys win on Thanksgiving, 27-10.
Brian Martin (7-4):
The Cowboys are bad, but the Giants are even worse. Both of these teams look to be competing for a Top 10 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, but only the Giants seem to be taking that into consideration as to how they approach the rest of the regular season. Because of that, I think the Cowboys play to win and walk away with their second consecutive “W” in this Thanksgiving matchup.
Give me Dallas, 24-13.
Chris Halling (4-7):
Despite a lot of fans pulling for the team to tank, I find it hard to believe this team can’t beat the Giants. They just got blown out by a struggling Bucs team, and they’re now likely down to Drew Lock as their starting quarterback on Thursday. The Cowboys defense will eat on Thanksgiving, scoring two touchdowns.
Cowboys win 37-10.
RJ Ochoa (8-3):
It feels like the most ridiculous thing of all time, but I firmly believe that the Dallas Cowboys will win and cover on Thanksgiving Day. They are obviously bad and I still do not believe the playoffs are a realistic thing, although I will certainly feel a certain way on Friday morning if they do win this game, but they are not the quitters that the Giants are. Give me Dallas in a game that we all enjoy as tryptophan courses through our systems.
Cowboys win, 23-10.
David Howman (7-4):
It seems like everyone expects the Cowboys to win this one, which is what makes me most nervous. This team hasn’t won in AT&T Stadium since 2023, and while hosting the Giants with possibly a third string quarterback on a short week seems like the perfect opportunity to do so, I also have very little confidence in the Cowboys to play up to their potential.
I also have very little confidence in the Giants, who seem committed to tanking the rest of the year at this point. I see this being way closer than it has any right to be, but I think Mike Zimmer’s defense creates just enough confusion to pull off the win.
Cowboys win 23-18.
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