Cowboys at Steelers: Writer predictions for Sunday night clash
Final Cowboys predictions before the game
The Cowboys have only ever won on the road so far this season, and they’ll hope that trend continues on Sunday night when they walk into Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. As slight underdogs, the Cowboys face a difficult challenge that has few feeling optimistic about their chances. Do any of our writers think they can pull this off? Let’s take a look.
When Pittsburgh has the ball
Run defense, run defense, run defense
No team has run the ball more through these first four weeks than the Steelers. New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has always been a run-heavy playcaller, and he’s leaned into that with Najee Harris and Justin Fields. Harris is eighth in carries for running backs, and Fields is fourth among quarterbacks in designed runs. Despite that, Pittsburgh hasn’t been very efficient on the ground: they’re 25th in yards per carry, 27th in EPA/rush, and 22nd in rush DVOA.
Of course, the Cowboys haven’t been great against the run this year either, but they were lights out last week against the Giants. They allowed just 1.1 yards per carry, though the Giants aren’t exactly the standard bearer for efficient offense. Still, Mazi Smith had the best game of his career and the defense was much more organized when defending the option. They’ll see plenty of runs on Sunday night, so if they can put up another good game in run support, that will go a long way towards neutralizing this Steelers offense.
When Dallas has the ball
Air it out
The Steelers defense is pretty darn good, so it’s hard to identify where to attack them. That said, this run defense (third in run defense DVOA, first in EPA/rush) is not going to give anything up. However, Pittsburgh is loading up the box on defense to stop the run, showing a stacked box at the fourth-highest rate in the league.
That hasn’t bitten them in the pass game yet, but the Steelers have faced Kirk Cousins, Bo Nix, Justin Herbert, and Joe Flacco so far this season; that’s two quarterbacks either coming off an injury or playing through one, a rookie, and a backup. Dak Prescott is far and away the best quarterback this defense will face so far this year, and CeeDee Lamb poses the most significant threat to this secondary. T.J. Watt and this lethal Steelers pass rush threaten to blow the whole thing up, but putting the ball in Prescott’s hands is the most direct path to scoring points against a defense that’s giving up the second-fewest points.
Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers...
Tom Ryle (2-2):
This one may come down to how well the Cowboys deal with a lot of injury adversity, and that’s worrisome. The loss of three starters could well lay bare a lack of depth, and the Guyton-Watt match up is another blinking red light.
I am not feeling good about this one and think Dallas loses 23-19.
Matt Holleran (2-2):
Injuries are starting to pile up for the Cowboys on both sides of the ball. Dallas will be without three of their 10 best players in this game as Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, DaRon Bland, and Brandin Cooks will all be on the sideline unable to contribute due to injury.
The Cowboys already had plenty of struggles on both sides of the ball with these players healthy, making it scary to think about what it will look like without them. I see Pittsburgh’s defensive line dominating this game, holding Dallas’ offense in check. The Cowboys are able to keep it very close, but the Steelers look like the better team throughout and get the win.
Give me Pittsburgh in a defensive battle, 20-17.
Jess Haynie (3-1):
I think Pittsburgh goes up early, Dallas rallies but falls short. It will have a similar feel to the Ravens game; the Steelers aren’t as good but will benefit from home field.
Steelers win, 31-26.
Mike Poland (3-1):
I’m the ultimate optimist around here and even I’m nervous on this one. Going in Dallas’ favor is the fact the Cowboys have won on the road at Pittsburgh three in the last four meetings. The last one being that crazy ending with an unbelievable run by Zeke. But here it is. Pittsburgh ranks third-best at defending run, allowing a low rush yardage per game of just 86 yards. Dallas ranks last in total rush yards on offense, averaging just 75 yards per game.
On top of that, Pittsburgh have allowed the second-fewest points on defense, and have allowed the third-fewest first downs. The hope for Dallas is that although they are missing pieces on the defensive line, the Steelers have many injuries on its offensive line. So that could the weak point to force Justin Fields into making more turnovers. He leads all quarterbacks this season in fumbles with four. So the hope is the defense can force Fields to make enough mistakes to keep the game competitive for Dallas.
Cowboys lose this one however, 27-21.
Dana Bartholomew (2-2):
It is going to be a tough outing in Pittsburgh for the Cowboys without Brandin Cooks, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Micah Parsons but looking at the next handful of games coming up, they need to get the W this week. For the defense, it might be hard to contain Justin Fields but when he does make mistakes, they have to be ready to capitalize.
On the other side of the ball, Dak Prescott and these receivers (even without Cooks) should be able to move the ball to score, even if that means relying heavily on Brandon Aubrey and his leg. I am not confident but I will go with the Cowboys winning this one.
Cowboys win, 24-17.
Brian Martin (2-2):
The optimist in me wants to pick the Dallas Cowboys this week, but the realist thinks the injuries to key starters like Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Brandin Cooks puts them at too much of a disadvantage in this matchup against the home team Pittsburgh Steelers. I also don’t like the head-to-head matchup between TJ Watt and Tyler Guyton.
Because of all that, I’m going to pick the Steelers to win 20-17 in a close one over the Cowboys.
Chris Halling (1-3):
Prior to the season starting, I predicted the Cowboys losing this game. A Mike Tomlin-coached team and an elite Pittsburgh front 7, makes this a tough matchup for the Cowboys. Factor in the losses of DeMarcus Lawrence, Micah Parsons, and Brandin Cooks.. it seems unlikely the Cowboys can overcome it. I hope I’m wrong.
I’m taking the Steelers in a low-scoring 17-13 game.
RJ Ochoa (3-1):
I certainly do not feel great about the Cowboys right now, but if I have to trust one singular thing in this contest on either side then I am going to go with Dak Prescott. Last week saw him do exactly what the team needed en route to a win that helped calm everything down (before it all broke again).
I’ll take the Cowboys in another game that looks uglier than the result is... 23-13.
David Howman (3-1):
I was ready to pick the Cowboys to win this game for a few reasons. First off, I think Dak Prescott can have success against this Steelers secondary, even with TJ Watt bearing down on him all night. I also think the defense can mostly contain the Steelers’ run game and force Justin Fields to look more like he did in Chicago than he has so far this season.
Then I saw that every Cowboys fans’ favorite referee, Shawn Hochuli, was assigned to this one. Hochuli has a record of calling everything on the visitor, and the Cowboys already have trouble staying away from the yellow flag. I expect things to be close, but the Cowboys make one too many mistakes while the Steelers play a relatively clean game.
Steelers win, 27-22.
Post a Comment