Cowboys over/under: 33 touchdown passes for Dak Prescott
How many touchdown passes do you think Dak Prescott will throw in 2024?
There may not be a more discussed, debated, or scrutinized player in professional sports than Dak Prescott. A man who has shown stretches of brilliance, while being the captain of a ship that has largely disappointed in the biggest moments. Football is the ultimate team sport, and while people understand that, it is oftentimes forgotten for the sake of a good debate.
Leading up to the 2024 season with as much uncertainty as we have seen in his tenure, Prescott and the Cowboys organization stare a pivotal year dead in the face. Will he be signed to an extension? The words seem to suggest that the front office is committed to the QB, while their actions are saying something else.
Despite all of the noise that comes with being the QB of America's Team, Prescott will be called upon to produce regardless. While we all understand that stats and wins in the regular season have been marginalized for a bigger-picture look at playoff success, let’s take a look at a statistical benchmark to ponder how Prescott may perform in 2024.
Over/under 33 touchdown passes for Dak Prescott
Because of the playoff failure that was the Green Bay Packers game, many have forgotten that 2023 was Prescott’s best season in the NFL. Prescott finished with 36 touchdown passes compared to only nine interceptions, both of which were some of the best marks of his eight-year career.
This was also in the first year of a new offense, where historically speaking, QBs struggle to find their footing before they get truly comfortable in their new situation. If that holds, the sky could be the limit for Dak in 2024.
Every Big-Time Throw from Dak Prescott in 2023 (46/6.29%) pic.twitter.com/DSUBnFBfsr
— James Foster (@NoFlagsFilm) May 15, 2024
Is 33 a fair number to put as a benchmark? Would it even be enough after having 36 and 37 touchdowns in two of the last three seasons?
Despite Dak’s projected Year 2 jump in Mike McCarthy’s offense, the group he is being given this year, at least on paper, is worse than last season's cast. With a downgrade at RB, a question mark at WR3, and complete unknowns at LT and C, this could be the biggest challenge Prescott faces to date.
When dealing with Prescott, the argument has been made that the regular season numbers don’t matter because of playoff failure. However, the reality is, the regular-season matters in order for a team to even make the playoffs. Dak’s first mission in 2024 is to get this unit back to the playoffs, and throwing touchdown passes is a pretty good way to get there.
Given the high number of TD passes Prescott has thrown previously, plus an offensive line that is being re-built, is a regression expected? Sure. But whatever Prescott’s very best is, it will most certainly be needed in 2024.
So what’s the call BTB, over or under 33 TD passes for Prescott this season?
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