Betting and historical odds say Micah Parsons could be in line for Defensive Player of the Year

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History suggests Micah Parsons could be in line for his first Defensive Player of the Year season.

The Dallas Cowboys have yet to get a contract extension done with any of the three notable players who were thought to receive one by now. Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons are all players who the Cowboys should have done anything and everything to get signed this offseason. It takes two to tango and all of that jazz, we have gone round and round with this subject with more laps likely in our future.

Today we are here to talk about the player who so often gets left out of the major discussions and that is Micah Parsons. This omission likely happens because of the perspective of time. Prescott is set to hit true free agency in 2025, and the Cowboys would have to place the franchise tag on Lamb if nothing is figured out between now and next offseason.

This offseason the Cowboys exercised Parsons’ fifth-year option for 2025 which is why he has the most time left at the moment. Dallas would not be in a situation where they had to place the franchise tag on Parsons until 2026 at the earliest, but waiting until then to do so would likely see the price rise.

This is exactly the phenomenon we are here to discuss.

Betting and historical odds suggest Micah Parsons could win Defensive Player of the Year this season which would seriously elevate his price

At the moment it makes perfect sense for the Cowboys to prioritize Prescott and Lamb for reasons outlined above. But waiting to get a deal done with Parsons is a dangerous game because the price stands to go up from a general perspective given that this is the way this thing goes, but also because Parsons could be negotiating from a much stronger individual position after this season.

This is kind of an outlandish thing to say as Parsons has had a Hall-of-Fame-like start to his career so far. Through the first three seasons of each respective career, he is running with or surpassing some all-time greats.

Stathead

I’ve chosen some names at random to compare Parsons to, perennial pass rushers who we all know to be or have been great: Myles Garrett, Lawrence Taylor, DeMarcus Ware, Von Miller and T.J. Watt.

As you can see, Parsons leads the group in games played and sacks, the latter by five over the closest contender in Von Miller. Nobody has more Pro Bowl or All-Pro appearances through the first three seasons of a career, in fact only one is tied and it is Lawrence Taylor who Parsons has often been likened/compared to.

LT was the only person who took home a Defensive Player of the Year during the time in question, but both T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett eventually won one in their careers, with Garrett being the reigning DPOY. It should also be noted that DeMarcus Ware was robbed of DPOY in 2008 because the Cowboys missed the playoffs, but hey whatever. We are over it!

Taylor and Ware are obviously both out of the NFL, and even though Von Miller has never won DPOY, he is no longer at a place in his career where he is considered among the contenders to do so. This leaves us with Garrett and Watt, both of whom have already won the award, as existing contenders to Parsons for the 2024 version.

Why is it significant that Garrett and Watt have won it before, though? Oftentimes when it comes to individual awards like these things can be a matter of the next guy getting his, as in the guy who hasn’t gotten it before.

Don’t believe me? Consider that in the history of DPOY, only eight players have won it multiple times and they are obviously some all-time dudes. In the 21st century there have only been three players who won it multiple times: Ray Lewis, J.J. Watt and Aaron Donald.

For what it is worth both Watt and Donald each won the award back-to-back at one point which means we can not rule Myles Garrett out from doing so; however, history is obviously working against him not just in that capacity, but in an overall one given how difficult it is to win the award multiple times in general.

Consider that on top of this history, Parsons is currently tied for the best odds to win it this upcoming season. Granted, we are still in June, but still.

DraftKings Sportsbook

If we live in the world where a newbie has to win the award this means that Parsons, Maxx Crosby, Will Anderson Jr. (the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year), Danielle Hunter (Anderson’s teammate with the Houston Texans) and Josh Allen are the names to watch. Throw in Chris Jones and Montez Sweat if you want, too.

Parsons has been banging on this door rather loudly for three years now so it stands to reason he would be the favorite of this group to break through. He is also literally favored relative to this specific group as well.

Say this ultimately winds up happening. Fast forward to the 2025 offseason where the Dallas Cowboys are negotiating with a Micah Parsons who is set to enter the final year of his rookie contract while coming off of his best individual season. This just so happens to be the exact situation that the team is in with CeeDee Lamb, by the way.

But Lamb did not take home any individual hardware last year and Parsons obviously still could this upcoming season. Whatever the price is right now, you can bet your bottom dollar that it will go up and the Cowboys will need to borrow that same dollar from you.

It is not a bold thing to say that the Cowboys should take care of their superstars and the extensions they need as soon as possible. This has obviously been true for many months now.

But this issue with Parsons is staring the Cowboys in the face from a year away in the same way that it did with Prescott and Lamb an offseason ago. Those two turned in the types of seasons to make things more difficult financially, so who’s to say that Parsons can’t as well?