A tough path lies ahead for the Cowboys in 2024

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What do you think is the most difficult circumstance that the Cowboys are facing in 2024?

The Dallas Cowboys are a good football team. Even with a complacent free agency effort that saw considerably more losses than gains, this team is expected to be right in the thick of things this season.

Good is good, but good is not great. Many people are questioning how this team is supposed to take that long-awaited next step without making a concerted effort to get better. Of course, the brain trust at The Star sees things differently. A new draft class and more development of the younger guys already on the roster should be ample improvement when you combine them with the bona fide stars they have on this team. That’s the theory, at least.

And it’s a good theory when you consider this team is coming off three straight 12-win seasons. How can we suggest they’re not good? We can’t.

The problem for the Cowboys isn’t that they can’t win, it’s just that they don’t, at least not in the important games in January. The Cowboys are regular-season studs, but playoff duds and that is no fun for any of us. Last season, the team not only won 12 games and took down the division, but they held the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The path was paved for a NFC championship matchup with the San Francisco 49ers. Sadly, the Cowboys once again did not make it past the Divisional Round. And this time, they didn’t even show up for the Wild Card Round. It went as bad as it could have for the Cowboys.

The fix for the Cowboys isn’t to get better. The fix is to play better. They have the talent. They have the means to do it. They just haven’t. Coaching overhauls, roster remodeling, and quarterback changes aren’t the answer. Playing better in playoff games is the answer. This has been, and will continue to be the one bugaboo for the Cowboys. It’s really that simple.

This season, the Cowboys also face another obstacle. Their schedule. They have a total of 11 games (65%) against teams with a winning record. Last season, the Cowboys went 4-4 against teams with a winning record, beating Philadelphia, Detroit, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle and losing to San Francisco, Buffalo, Miami, and Philadelphia. If the Cowboys don’t improve upon that, they will end up with at least five losses.

Beating good teams could be more of a challenge this season as seven games (41%) are against opponents that have better odds of winning the Super Bowl.

One of the things the Cowboys have benefited from over the years is playing in a division that only has one tough opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles. If you removed the dreadful 2020 season when Dak Prescott was lost early in the year, the Cowboys have gone 30-6 (83%) within the division since 2017. At the same time, they’ve gone 33-30 (52%) outside their division. They count on those divisional wins like a Christmas bonus.

And here lies another problem. The New York Giants and Washington Commanders have been doormats for the Cowboys in recent years. In that same time window, the Cowboys are a perfect 12-0 against the Giants and 10-2 against the Commanders. That’s a 92% success rate against those two teams.

Both the Giants and Commanders are expected to get better. Washington has Dan Quinn as their head coach as well as several former Cowboys players joining them in free agency. Both teams have questions at quarterback with the Commanders drafting No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels and the Giants still rolling with Daniel Jones. How these Daniels do will go a long way in determining how much of a challenge they’ll pose, but even if they sneak in a win or two, that could be damaging to the Cowboys.

A tougher schedule could mean more losses and more losses could mean a tougher path in the playoffs for a Cowboys team trying to find a way to get over the hump. And even if they emerge victorious against these improved teams, those 20+ cakewalk blowout wins aren’t likely to be so plentiful this season. Tougher games mean more reps for the starters and could create more difficult health issues than they’ve had in previous seasons. Talent-wise, they’re still a force, but being a regular-season stud might prove to be a little more challenging this time around.