Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson poised to top 2023's Pro Bowl production
This time of year, it’s easy for fans to focus- maybe too much- on what their team doesn’t have: the big-name free agent their front office didn’t go out and get, the dream blockbuster trade that never materialized, the roster holes still to be filled with a hot prospect or two via the draft.
Forward thinking is great and necessary, but it can often result in forgetting about the talent that already exists inside the building. Contrary to how it can feel like this offseason has unfolded, most of last year’s top-producing playmakers will in fact be back for the Cowboys, and they’ll be looking to build on their 2023 bodies of work.
Jake Ferguson took a major step up in his first season as the team’s starting tight end, and he could be poised to go even further in 2024.
ESPN recently highlighted Ferguson on a list of several players from around the league who they like to beat early statistical projections for the upcoming campaign. And while the picks were made from a fantasy football perspective, the obvious reality is that more receptions, yards, and touchdowns for the third-year man will also translate to good actual things for the Cowboys.
Ferguson’s 102 targets and 71 catches were both top-40 figures among all pass-catchers (including wide receivers and running backs) last season, and he finished inside the top 50 in both yards (761) and touchdowns (5).
Matt Bowen notes Ferguson’s “seam-stretching ability and a rugged play style after the catch,” calling him “a prime target in the middle of the field for quarterback Dak Prescott and an underneath outlet on boot/play-action.”
Expect those things to hold true again in 2024, and maybe even more so.
While Michael Gallup wasn’t the same threat last year that he had been early in his career, his absence moving forward means there will be a new man playing the WR3 role in Dallas. Maybe it’s Jalen Tolbert or KaVontae Turpin or even Martavis Bryant. Or perhaps it’s another of the team’s bench receivers. Or possibly even a rookie soon to hear his name called in the draft. No matter who it is, it will be somebody who’s new to the job… and likely less trusted by Prescott than Ferguson.
The same goes at the running back position. Rico Dowdle has a grand total of 17 catches on his resume. Deuce Vaughn has seven. Hunter Luepke: three. Malik Davis caught six balls… in 2022. Snoop Conner- zero career receptions- has yet to suit up in the silver and blue. Maybe there’s a legitimate backfield receiving threat coming from the college ranks, but odds are Ferguson will be called upon to serve as Prescott’s safety blanket even more frequently this season.
In fact, Ferguson’s main competition for touches could be from a fellow tight end. While pro sophomore Luke Schoonmaker has yet to prove he’s a passing-attack weapon and Peyton Hendershot’s 2023 production fell off considerably after a strong rookie effort, the Cowboys do have highly-touted project John Stephens Jr. waiting in the wings. After losing his first year to a preseason ACL injury, the 6-foot-5-inch darling of last summer’s camp is eager to finally crack the lineup and show what he can do.
And while this year’s tight end draft class is a bit lackluster once you get past Georgia’s Brock Bowers, there is a hometown product worth keeping an eye on. Ja’Tavion Sanders grew up in nearby Denton and was a two-time first-team All-Big 12 player at Texas. Now considered the second-best tight end available this spring and a potent receiving threat, he’s already visited the Cowboys and gone on record as mentioning Dallas as “a great fit” for him.
Not that any of that should be seen as an obstacle to Ferguson having another big year. The Wisconsin product was ready to get right back at it immediately following the Cowboys’ stunning opening-round playoff loss to Green Bay in January, telling reporters while still at his locker, “You get your ass in the weight room. You get your ass on the playbook. You start now. The offseason starts now. The preparation for next year starts now.”
A player like Ferguson wouldn’t prepare in order to just fall short of his 2023 Pro Bowl campaign, so ESPN’s prediction of further improvement seems quite plausible. Bowen projects Ferguson to end up with “75 to 80” receptions this coming year, a range that only six tight ends reached or surpassed last season.
Focus on the deficiencies right now if you want, but a step up from Ferguson in 2024 would ensure that he’s top of mind next year when it comes to taking stock of the Cowboys’ best assets.
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